Featured Stories
Scandal Erodes China’s Soft Power Burma Ready to Play Ball With US Fitch downgrades Hungary to junk status Suspending FDI ‘highly regressive’: India Inc
 
Scandal Erodes China’s Soft Power

Scandal Erodes China’s Soft Power

Hidden power struggles, repression, belie unified government that can deliver reforms Power, hard and soft: Escaped dissident, Chen Guangcheng, reunites with family as US diplomats watch (top); China’s top legislator Wu Bangguo unveils the new Confucius Institute at Minsk State Linguistic University in Belarus HONG KONG: Buoyed by its massive foreign-exchange reserve, China has spent billions of dollars to boost its soft power. Direct Chinese television broadcasts and Confucius Institutes around the world are aimed at winning the world’s respect. But a series of political scandals showing a total lack of regard for China’s rule of law have punctured claims about the Chinese system’s superiority. Chinese netizens’ claims that dissident Chen Guangcheng, who had escaped house arrest, was in “the 100 percent safe place” in China – the US embassy – sum up China’s challenge. In fact, the Chen incident represents a loss of face, reflecting a lack of trust by Chinese citizens in their own government. As the old saying goes, actions speak louder than words, and actions in China of late have been deafening. A quick survey of world newspaper opinion pages shows the damage to China’s soft power. In February, Chongqing Vice Mayor Wang Lijun spent a mysterious 30 hours in the US Consulate in Chengdu and subsequently “left of his own volition,” according to the US State Department. Obviously he thought the US mission was the best place for his personal safety. Now in custody in Beijing, he faces treason charges and, apparently, assists in the investigation of former Chongqing party chief Bo Xilai and his wife, Gu Kailai, who is suspected of murdering British businessman Neil Heywood.The Bo saga dominated headlines for weeks, with salacious details leaked, including massive amounts of money involved and the poison administered to Heywood, who, it’s alleged, wanted a bigger cut for laundering money. Chinese citizens treated the news as unusual only because it was public, which certainly does not boost China’s soft power based on Confucian morality. Chinese citizens treated news of the Bo saga as unusual only because it was public, not a boost for China’s soft power.Then, just as the Bo saga was beginning to run out of steam, came another sensational development: the escape from house arrest of blind legal-rights activist Chen, who managed to travel from Shandong to Beijing, before finding refuge inside the US Embassy. Chen left the embassy after six days, again of his own free will, according to both the Chinese and US governments. Only a few hours passed before he changed his mind and wanted to leave China with his family. Like China, the United States does not welcome Chinese citizens seeking shelter in its diplomatic missions, whether they’re former police chiefs implicated in human rights abuses or dissidents mistreated by Chinese authorities. After all, the United States has no means of sheltering dissidents for prolonged periods or spiriting them out of the country. Ongoing events show that the Chinese government’s often belligerent and extra-legal behavior to a large extent influences how China is perceived by the rest of the world.  Such actions have a greater impact on Chinese soft power – or its lack thereof – than programs beamed by Xinhua or CCTV around the world, at a cost of billions of dollars. Last October, China’s Communist leadership endorsed a decision to enhance the nation’s soft power. Even before, that, in 2010, China launched 24-hour global English TV news. In February, CCTV America, based in Washington, was launched. In addition, China has set up more than 320 Confucius Institutes around the world to promote the teaching of Chinese language and culture, at a cost of roughly $150 million a year as of three years ago. Ongoing events in China play a much greater role in shaping how people view China than “new perspectives” or “alternative views” presented by spin doctors or professional western journalists on China’s payroll. Countering the Confucius Institutes spreading word about the virtues of family cohesion is the heartrending account of Chen’s family held hostage by the government. Events in China do more to shape how the world views the nation than versions presented by TV spin doctors. In the Chen case, the United States crafted an agreement under which the Chinese government agreed to relocate the dissident and his family to another part of the country where he could enroll in a university to study law. Chen insisted that he wanted to leave the country as soon as possible, and stated he feared for his family’s safety in a phone call to an emergency US congressional hearing on his case. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman announced today that Chen could also apply to study abroad.This is unprecedented. If China carries out its part of the bargain, it could mean loosening of the grip that security authorities have had on the country in recent years, ostensibly for maintaining social stability. Little of this is known to the Chinese public because of official censorship. However, while China can gag its own media with directives from the party’s propaganda department, it can do little about news reports from other countries. Despite China spending billions on public relations, editorial comments in the free media reflect what the world thinks of China. Major western media, of course, have been unstinting.Referring to the fall of Bo Xilai, Businessweek called it “the most serious threat to the authority” of China’s Communist party since the 1989 Tiananmen Square uprising.The Chinese government has insisted that the Bo case – including allegations that his wife committed murder – was no more than a “criminal case.” Publications, in Asia and elsewhere, though wonder about China’s opaque power struggle, belying the image of a unified China preparing for orderly succession. Japan Times, in an April 30 editorial, commented on reports that Bo had wiretapped telephone conversations of President Hu Jintao and concluded that the former’s downfall “points to a possible power struggle at a time when China is preparing for leadership transition.” Hu, the party leader, is expected to step down later this year as part of a once-in-a-decade changeover. In South Korea, the Joongang Daily, in a March 16 editorial, called for political reform, arguing that “China’s stable development is not its problem alone, as it is tied to the interests of the world.” Global media wonder about an opaque power struggle, belying images of a unified China or orderly succession. An  editorial in the Korea Herald  suggested: “The scandal represents absurdities of today’s China, where power is connected with money…. How the collective leadership will handle the Bo Xilai event will show whether the system in China is durable.” Still in Asia, the China Post in Taiwan carried an editorial on the Bo case April 15 in which it called for “the institution of a truly independent judiciary that does not bow to the rich and powerful.” In South Africa, one of China’s BRICS partners, The Star carried an opinion piece May 2 on Chen.Titled “A Chinese Puzzle,” the essay called the drama being played out at the US Embassy “a microcosm of a conflict between the two powers” and said the crisis “needs to be defused – but not at the expense of Chen’s new-found hope of freedom.” For weeks, Germany’s Der Spiegel has asserted that China’s leaders “have been embroiled in a bitter power struggle that could jeopardize a carefully planned transition in the national leadership.” But because of censorship controls, “many Chinese have become so cynical that they don’t even trust the party media, such as state-run television, when they actually tell the truth….” So, while Chinese censorship is successful, it only extends as far as the country’s borders. In other countries, the media is free to draw its own conclusions about China, based on what’s happening on the ground. If Beijing is serious about increasing its soft power, it must first change the way it treats its own people. But that might embolden critics to question one-party rule, which remains non-negotiable.  

Power Shift in China – Part III

Ending secretive selection of China’s top leaders doesn’t guarantee peaceful rise NEW HAVEN: The spectacular fall of one of China’s leading politicians, the Chongqing party secretary Bo Xilai, reminds foreign policy watchers about the uncertainty that lurks behind the impressive gates of Zhongnanhai. As we look forward to the next decade, the greatest uncertainty – and the greatest risk – in Sino-US relations is what happens in Chinese domestic politics. Domestic politics drives foreign policy in all political systems. In China, national politicians have to worry not just about winning the next election, but about keeping the Chinese Communist Party in power. Behind the headlines we read every day about China’s rise is a country with a political leadership that is extremely insecure, constantly fretting that it might be reaching the end of its reign. It’s also a country with a dysfunctional policy process dominated by powerful interest groups, many of them within the state itself.The biggest danger isn’t China’s growing economic or military strength. It’s the internal fragility that could drive it to make threats that leaders can’t back down from for fear of loss of internal support – and the possibility of overexpansion, driven by parochial interest groups that would benefit in the short term. I worry that the nature of the Chinese political system challenges the restrained approach to foreign policy laid down by Deng Xiaoping during the 1980s, making it hard for the country to sustain its peaceful rise. Insecurity has been particularly acute since 1989 Tiananmen crisis. Confronting protracted demonstrations in 130-plus cities, the leadership split over how to handle dissent, and the People’s Liberation Army use of force saved the regime. A serious risk for China’s regime is splits at the top of the Chinese Communist Party. China today isn’t seething with unrest. Despite the impressive number – 180,000 in 2010 by the government’s own count – most demonstrations are local, small in scale. But jittery leaders track demonstrations closely, probably more worried than they need to be. A more serious risk to the regime is splits at the top of the Chinese Communist Party. Leninist authoritarian systems fall from the top down. China is ruled by a collective leadership of the nine members of the Politburo Standing Committee. Since the Tiananmen crisis, the nine have worked hard to maintain a public façade of unity, successfully hiding from public view the competition that inevitably exists at the top.They hide the contest for power behind a veil of secrecy because they fear that knowledge of divisions at the top might embolden subordinates or citizens to speak out with new demands in exchange for support. Splits at the top can create a “political opportunity structure” that allows people to demonstrate without fear of punishment. If leaders start trying to differentiate themselves, create public personas and mobilize support from the society at large – as Bo Xilai tried to do –that threatens to unravel the regime. Yet the temptation to reach out beyond the inner circle to build a public following always exists. Even Mao Zedong himself did it when he felt that the bureaucracy was blocking his initiatives – that’s what the Cultural Revolution was all about.The new media environment is making it more difficult to prevent individual leaders from playing to the public. With thousands of commercial media outlets and 500 million Chinese following the news on the internet, it’s just too easy, too tempting to play to the crowd. Prime Minister Wen Jiabao is a media politician, but as a lame duck about to retire next fall, is not too threatening. But when Bo campaigned publicly for the Politburo Standing Committee by staking out a position as a law-and-order populist and neo-Maoist – a desperate move because he was unlikely to get on the Standing Committee otherwise – he threatened everyone else at the top. And they brought him down. Open competition at the top may frighten CCP elite, but doesn’t have to threaten survival of party rule. Open competition at the top feels frightening and destabilizing to the CCP elite, but it doesn’t have to threaten the survival of party rule.The leaders simply must find a way to manage the competition and prevent it from becoming an all-out war that could destroy the regime. One solution would be to allow open competition for the top posts in an election by the Central Committee, the body of several hundred government, party and military officials that already has the formal power to select CCP leaders.This is how it sometimes was done in the Soviet Union and is now done in Vietnam: The top vote-getter becomes party secretary, second best becomes premier, and third best becomes president. It would be the next step in the institutionalization of CCP leadership politics. The party almost allowed the Central Committee to hold an open election of the top posts in 2002 when it had to choose the anointed successor for the first time – Hu Jintao had been chosen by Deng Xiaoping. But scared by the possibility of a loss of control, the party took only a baby step in that direction: It held the election as an informal straw poll to gauge appeal of potential leaders and used information from the popularity contest to craft a slate of nominees acceptable to the Central Committee selectors.The fall of Bo Xilai appears to have encouraged the advocates of economic and political reform to start speaking out in the hopes that their ideas might be taken up at the 18th CCP Congress in the fall. A second burst of reform in China could buoy prospects for Sino-US cooperation. If the economic reformers win, the private sector, which has a strong stake in economic interdependence with the US and the rest of the world, would have a stronger voice, and the state monopolies which use technology standards and policies like indigenous innovation to protect the market for themselves, would be weakened. Steps to strengthen China’s legal system – an important theme of the reformist platform – would encourage Americans to see China as once again “moving in the right direction.” A reform-minded leadership might also exercise greater restraint over the international security and propaganda bureaucracies that have run amok over the past decade in ways that have harmed China’s international reputation and relationships as well as its popularity at home. A China with open institutionalized competition for political power might still be an assertive China. Yet a China with more open institutionalized competition for political power might still be an assertive China.Tough stands on hot-button issues like Japan, Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang and South China Sea play well with a nationalist public and the political elite in the Central Committee. Politicians would take care to protect their nationalist flank as they pursue economic and political reforms that threaten vested interests like state corporations. Nor is there any reason to expect a Politburo Standing Committee selected by an open competition to be more effective at exercising supervision over bureaucracies like the State Oceanographic Administration in over-reaching and provoking fights. Earlier last month the oceanographic administration sent two ships to the Diaoyutai Island, Senkaku in Japanese, provoking a clash with the Japanese coast guard; the agency’s spokesman made a statement that the action was purely to assert Chinese sovereignty over the islands. And if the People’s Liberation Army remains a powerful bloc in the Central Committee and ultimate guarantor of CCP rule, there is no reason to anticipate a cut in defense budgets.  Political succession has always been the Achilles heel of authoritarian systems. Bo is unlikely to be the last Chinese politician to use the media to build a public following.Trying to keep leadership competition under wraps within a black box is a losing proposition. More open competition for power within the party could open up new possibilities for reform that would have positive spillovers for China’s foreign relations. But it’s no guarantee of a China with the political legitimacy and institutional wherewithal to rise peacefully.  Susan Shirk is Ho Miu Lam Professor and chair of the 21st Century China Program at the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego. She served as US deputy assistant secretary of state with responsibility for China 1997-2000. Her most recent books are China: Fragile Superpower and Changing Media, Changing China.This article is based on her presentation at the first annual conference of the Johnson Center for the Study of American Diplomacy, held in honor of Henry Kissinger at Yale University in March 2012.

Burma Ready to Play Ball With US

Burma Ready to Play Ball With US

Clinton said the US “will further embrace” Burma if “the government releases all remaining political prisoners, ends violence against minorities – and cuts military ties with North Korea.”

Fitch downgrades Hungary to junk status

Fitch downgrades Hungary to junk status

Budapest: Fitch Ratings downgraded Hungary's credit grade to junk status on Friday, citing a standoff between the country and the European Union and the International Monetary Fund over rescue loans. Fitch, which followed similar moves from Moody's and S&P, kept a negative outlook, indicating a more than a 50 per cent chance for another downgrade within the next two years

Suspending FDI ‘highly regressive’: India Inc

Suspending FDI ‘highly regressive’: India Inc

Disappointed by the government's decision to put foreign direct investment (FDI) in multi-brand retail on hold, India Inc on Wednesday described the move as 'highly regressive'. "...

Top Stories Thailand

The system of rice intensification (SRI) is gaining ground in Asia

The system of rice intensification (SRI) is gaining ground in Asia

Less seed, less water, less pesticides and chemical fertilizers can bring significantly higher yields, according to the International Network and Resources Centre (SRI-Rice), based at Cornell University in the US. SRI methods are being successfully applied to other staple commodities like wheat and sugarcane, and teff in northeast ...

Posted in Business, National, News, Top StoriesComments

FAO expects rice production to rise by 1.7% in 2012

FAO expects rice production to rise by 1.7% in 2012

Turning to the coming season, FAO has set its first forecast of global paddy production in 2012 at 732.3 million tonnes 488.2 million tonnes, milled basis, 1.7 percent above the revised 2011 estimate. See more here: FAO expects rice production to rise by 1.7% in 2012 ...

Posted in Business, Markets, News, Top StoriesComments

Unreasonable financial mechanism makes trade promotion policies powerless

Unreasonable financial mechanism makes trade promotion policies powerless

Vietnam has a trade promotion agency, in charge of running national trade promotion program, aiming to help Vietnamese exporters reach out to the world market. However, the agency remains helpless with “hand ...

Read the full story

May 17, 2012 | Posted in National, News, Vietnam

“Made in China” No More

Chinese companies are taking advantage of the EU debt crisis to make headway into Europe, targeting key sectors and regions, including shipping and ports in Greece, auto manufacturing in Eastern ...

Read the full story

May 17, 2012 | Posted in Banking, China, Companies, Economics, National, News

Global shares recover, but fear on Greece remains

Global shares recover, but fear on Greece remains

Asian shares on Thursday recovered a bit of the ground lost in the previous day's sell-off, but investors found no reason to bet on risk amid deepening turmoil in Greece ...

Read the full story

May 17, 2012 | Posted in India

Sony NEX-F3 Camera, Hands-On

Sony NEX-F3 Camera, Hands-On

Follow this link: Sony NEX-F3 Camera, Hands-On

Read the full story

May 17, 2012 | Posted in News, Tech, video

The Chongqing Economy: An Illustrated Primer

The Chongqing Economy: An Illustrated Primer

The fall of disgraced former Communist Party high-flier Bo Xilai has put the economy of Chongqing, the southwestern mega-city he ruled from 2007 until March this year, under the microscope. ...

Read the full story

May 17, 2012 | Posted in China

Rupee gains as risk assets stabilise

Rupee gains as risk assets stabilise

See the rest here: Rupee gains as risk assets stabilise

Read the full story

May 17, 2012 | Posted in India

Sony SLT-A37 DSLR, Hands-On

Sony SLT-A37 DSLR, Hands-On

Continue reading here: Sony SLT-A37 DSLR, Hands-On

Read the full story

May 17, 2012 | Posted in News, Tech

US Surgeon General Stages ‘Walk to Wellness’

US Surgeon General Stages ‘Walk to Wellness’

In 20 years, four out of ten American adults will be overweight, according to a recent study published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. Even today more than 78 ...

Read the full story

May 17, 2012 | Posted in Asean, News

Hot Topics

Thailand declares 48 drought-hit provinces disaster zones

In response to the drought disaster in 48 provinces, the interior ministry has assigned local authorities to set up special operations centres to ...

Business, Environment, News, Top Stories

African competition in China’s market for iron ore

Author: Peter Drysdale, Editor, East Asia ForumThe boom in resource prices, fuelled by China’s surging industrialisation and steel demand over the past couple of decades, ...

Asean, China, Top Stories

Salary raise to 15,000 baht for civil servants postponed to 2014

The Cabinet has during yesterday's meeting decided to complete the implementation of the THB 15,000 salary base for civil servants with a bachelor’s ...

Business, Economics, National, News, Top Stories

Indonesia quake triggers tsunami alert in Thailand

Thailands National Disaster Warning Centre has issued an evacuation order for residents and tourists along the Andaman coast after a huge earthquake struck ...

Business, Indonesia, National, News, Top Stories

Democracy comes to China via Wukan

Author: Sam Byfield, MelbourneIt has been an interesting few months in Chinese politics.On top of the imminent national-level leadership transition and the removal of Politburo ...

Asean, China, Politics, Top Stories

US lifts travel ban on Burmese officials

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says some senior Burmese officials and parliamentarians will now be allowed to visit the United States and that ...

Business, Investment, News, Top Stories, Travel

Join Us

Your Business on SNN

Travel

Etihad airways