By Tom Orlik
One of the first casualties of the fading global recovery—pressure for yuan appreciation.
The world’s economic elite is gathering in Washington, D.C., for the International Monetary Fund’s annual meetings, which run from Sept. 23-25. In the past, that has been an opportunity to exert a little pressure on China to allow faster yuan appreciation.
The signs in August were certainly positive. The annualized pace of yuan appreciation against the dollar picked up to more than 11%, up from an average of around 5% in the first seven months of the year. The trade weighted exchange rate—a more comprehensive measure of movements in the yuan—also gained some ground.
But August’s surge has already faded. Appreciation ground almost to a standstill in the first half of September, and it is unlikely to return to anything like August’s electric pace. There are three reasons why Beijing allows accelerating gains in its currency: strong exports, high inflation and international pressure. A fading global recovery pushes back against all of them.
August’s trade data, which showed exports near a record high, were surprisingly strong. But with the U.S. and European economies teetering on the brink the outlook is gloomy. The latest official survey of China’s manufacturers shows overseas orders falling, which will make Beijing nervous about imposing additional currency pressure on exporters.
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In recent years, China has re-invigorated its support for leading state-owned enterprises in sectors it considers important to “economic security,” explicitly looking to foster globally competitive national champions.
The Chinese government faces numerous economic development challenges, including:
(a) reducing its high domestic savings rate and correspondingly low domestic demand through increased corporate transfers and a strengthened social safety net;
(b) sustaining adequate job growth for tens of millions of migrants and new entrants to the work force; (c) reducing corruption and other economic crimes; and
(d) containing environmental damage and social strife related to the economy’s rapid transformation.
The country’s per capita income was at $6,567 (IMF, 98th) in 2009.
Some economists believe that Chinese economic growth has been in fact understated during much of the 1990s and early 2000s, failing to fully factor in the growth driven by the private sector and that the extent at which China is dependent on exports is exaggerated.
Agricultural output has been vulnerable to the effects of weather, while industry has been more directly influenced by the government.
A report by UBS in 2009 concluded that China has experienced total factor productivity growth of 4 per cent per year since 1990, one of the fastest improvements in world economic history.
By the early 1990s these subsidies began to be eliminated, in large part due to China’s admission into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, which carried with it requirements for further economic liberalization and deregulation.
The ministry made the announcements during a press conference held in Xiamen on the upcoming United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) World Investment Forum and the 14th China International Fair for Investment and Trade.
According to the ministry, China’s ODI grew by 1.1 percent from a year earlier to $56.53 billion, which includes investment of $47.8 billion in non-financial sectors worldwide, up 14.2 percent year-on-year.
China is aiming to be the world’s largest new energy vehicle market by 2020 with 5 million cars.
Although China is still a developing country with a relatively low per capita income, it has experienced tremendous economic growth since the late 1970s.
Even with these improvements, agriculture accounts for only 20% of the nation’s gross national product.
In terms of cash crops, China ranks first in cotton and tobacco and is an important producer of oilseeds, silk, tea, ramie, jute, hemp, sugarcane, and sugar beets.
China ranks first in world production of red meat (including beef, veal, mutton, lamb, and pork).
There are also extensive iron-ore deposits; the largest mines are at Anshan and Benxi, in Liaoning province.
China’s leading export minerals are tungsten, antimony, tin, magnesium, molybdenum, mercury, manganese, barite, and salt.
China’s exploitation of its high-sulfur coal resources has resulted in massive pollution.
Great inland cities include Beijing and the river ports of Nanjing, Chongqing, and Wuhan.
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