Apart from the economic damage made to the business sector, the ongoing rally in Thailand’s capital has also posed threats to the tourism sector. Thailand Business News
Originally posted here:
More hotels, restaurants are closing in Thailand’s central business district
Real GDP fell 6.3 percent between the third quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, as global demand slumped, before rebounding 6.9 percent through the end of 2009. The rebound was due to a recovery in global demand, an end to inventory liquidation and a pickup in private consumption as confidence returned.
Overall, domestic demand should provide a positive but limited contribution to growth: vulnerable households lost ground in 2009 and risks are substantial in 2010, as falling agricultural output due to the current drought may offset opportunities from the improved overall economic environment. Household consumption levels, which are highly correlated with the poverty rate, contracted in 2009 despite the rebound in the last quarter of the year, suggesting a likely increase in the poverty rate compared to 2008, especially when compounded by the loss in purchasing power from the food and fuel crisis of 2008. The outlook for 2010 is uncertain : average wages are likely to increase, thanks to the reallocation of labor from agriculture to manufacturing. Although labor markets appear very tight, with unemployment below 1 %, the data do not account for the large number of workers who moved to lower-productivity jobs in agriculture and informal services due to the crisis. Many of these workers are now returning to manufacturing, which offers higher wages than agriculture.
Alexander Wood, a founding partner of AWR Lloyd, believes the global crisis has acted as a catalyst for a fundamental, structural change in the global capital markets. The real new players in the markets are the sovereign wealth funds.
So small free floats and poor disclosure tend to create a vicious cycle,’’ Mr Wood said.
