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Автор: Петр Drysdale, Редактор, Восточная Азия форум

The boom in resource prices, подпитывается Бушующие индустриализации Китая и спроса на сталь за последние несколько десятилетий, has lifted Australia’s terms of trade to a 100-year high.

Resource exporters around the world have been enjoying good times.

Australia’s terms of trade are 65 per cent above the average twentieth-century level and 85 per cent above the trend seen in the twentieth century, had that continued. В результате, Australian gross domestic product in nominal terms is about 13 per cent higher than it would have been without these relative price changes.

What goes up, конечно, must also come down. A gigantic global supply response to booming resource prices is already under way.

Take the case of iron ore, Australia’s largest export commodity, the price of which leapt from just over $12.68 per tonne in 2001 к $187.18 per tonne in February 2011. Forecasts for growth of Chinese iron ore demand (and India’s attempt to switch from exporting iron ore to supplying growing domestic demand from its own steel industry) have led to a scramble to expand and capitalise on current high prices. Suppliers all around the world are trying to cash in on these high ore prices. The established suppliers in Australia and Brazil have big expansion plans just to keep up with continuing growth in the demand from China’s steel mills, and new suppliers are now scrambling to enter the market.

The big new entrant in global iron ore supply is Africa. Africa has reserves of high-quality iron ore that are estimated to match those in Australia. О 200 iron ore projects are being contemplated across the African continent.

In the past Africa has not been a significant competitor in the iron ore market. African projects typically require huge infrastructure investments to bring them to market. Western banks have been reluctant to finance these project because of high political and economic risks in most African countries. That, it seems, is all about to change significantly. For one thing, much of Africa has been doing better in economic terms over the past decade. For another, Chinese capital is willing to take the risks in Africa.

In this week’s lead essay Luke Hurst reviews 17 key iron projects across West and Central Africa and provides new estimates of additional iron ore export capacity that are likely to come on stream by 2018.

По 2018, Hurst calculates, China is expected to increase its demand at a steady but slowing rate as its growth becomes less resource intensive. Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) forecasts that Chinese iron ore demand will grow 2.8 per cent per annum through to 2018. Other estimates, from the Raw Materials Group, put growth at 3.8 per cent per annum, a percentage point higher than BREE’s projection. Hurst compares global import demand on the higher Chinese demand forecasts with projected global export capacity, including new African capacity five years out, to assess what the impact of new supplies might be on iron ore prices over this period.

Hurst examines projects according to the risk of their falling over — identifying capacity that is very likely to come on stream according to schedule, capacity that has a fair chance, and capacity that is less likely to be operational in the next five years. Hurst’s analysis suggests that Africa will begin to put pressure on prices in the next three to five years. He reckons that iron ore prices are likely to fall back to around $80 per tonne quickly. If more of the planned African capacity comes on stream prices could tumble to $60 per tonne in the next five years.

A price fall of this magnitude, Hurst points out, would still provide intra-marginal producers with healthy profits but it would have serious knock-on effects for the iron ore exporters and their investments in countries such as Australia and Brazil. For one thing it would dry up internally generated investment capital in the major iron ore firms. Iron ore is expected to represent 2.6 per cent of Australia’s GDP in 2011-12, and a drop in iron prices would affect Australia’s terms of trade, exchange rate and income. The falling price would especially constrain the development of Australia’s budding magnetite industry.

In short, any fall in the price of iron ore such as Hurst foreshadows would have significant knock-on effects for the iron ore-centric economies of Australia and Brazil.

Despite the expectation of strong Chinese demand for iron and other resources for some years, the exceptionally tight commodity markets and high resource prices in the past decade seem very likely to ease over the next half decade as supply responds in global markets to the investment opportunities that high prices have generated.

These outcomes are the result of the response in incredibly tight global markets to bringing on stream new sources of international iron ore supply to service the boom in Chinese demand. They take no account of an unanticipated dip in Chinese demand, which in this analysis is assumed to continue to grow steadily.

Nobody has long-term monopoly in resource markets, neither sellers nor buyers. Discouraged from investment in Australia, there’s no question that Chinese and other investment (including by the majors) has gone to Africa and elsewhere to fill the gap, as the Japanese went to Brazil to fill the Australian gap more than thirty years ago.

Peter Drysdale is Editor of the East Asia Forum.

1. Вещь, Africa and the contestability of the global iron ore market
2. Iron ore and the market power myth
3. China’s impact on iron ore markets

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Африканский конкуренции на рынке Китая на железную руду

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Sensex концах 346 points up

Stocks are sizzling in Hong Kong, вверх 16% в этом году, but when it comes to hiring it looks more like a bear market, with the city’s employers feeling the gloomiest they have since 2009.

According to survey of 810 local employers conducted by ManpowerGroup, employer hiring expectations are the weakest they’ve been since the fourth quarter of 2009. О 80% of those surveyed expect that their staffing levels will stay flat in this upcoming quarter, while just 11% anticipate that such levels may expand.

That’s in sharp contrast to the mood last year around this time, when optimism over China and Hong Kong’s economy prompted nearly 70% of Hong Kong respondents to a Hudson Highland Group Inc. survey to сказать they planned to increase hiring.

Hong Kong’s GDP growth dropped from 4.3% in the third quarter of 2011 к 3% В конце прошлого года, notes Lancy Chui, Managing Director of ManpowerGroup Hong Kong, resulting in “less confidence” in employment prospects. She also cites “surging retail rents” as a factor in explaining Hong Kong’s tamped-down job creation, as well as financial headwinds more globally.

Plus, the banking sector that lies at the heart of the city has endured job cuts, especially at Western banks  suffering the fallout from Europe’s debt crisis and a generally weaker global economy.

Students about to graduate are still feeling relatively optimistic about their prospects, said Herman Chan, who directs careers and placement at the University of Hong Kong. Однако, сказал он, the number of companies that have posted jobs online to target HKU students has dropped slightly, as have the number of jobs they’ve been offering.

“People are always asking me if I have a crystal ball,"Г-н. Chan said in an interview, describing himself as “rather cautious” in his attitude toward those current job-seekers. “My expectation is [the job market] will be similar to 2011 for graduates, but not better.”

Across the Asia Pacific region, Manpower reports, their survey found that employers are feeling most buoyant about new hires in India, Тайвань, New Zealand and Singapore—and most wary of adding new staff in Hong Kong and Japan.

Еще, if local employers hesitant to invest in more staff needed more persuading, they could refer to a new report (pdf) by the Economist Intelligence Unit that shows Hong Kong’s workforce boasts the highest level of human capital in Asia—earning top marks on quality of education and healthcare, as well as levels of risk-taking and entrepreneurship among its citizens.  Globally, only Dublin outranks Hong Kong on that measure.

– Te-Ping Chen. Follow her on Twitter @tepingchen

Like China Real Time on Facebook for the latest updates.

Накопительное удовлетворением юаня по отношению к доллару США с конца привязки к доллару более чем 20% к концу 2008, но обменный курс практически не привязан с момента начала мирового финансового кризиса.

Экономическое развитие было более быстрым в прибрежных провинциях, чем в интерьере, и примерно 200 миллионов сельских рабочих и членов их семей переехали в города в поисках работы.

Китай подчеркнули важность повышения личных доходов и потребления и внедрения новых систем управления, что позволит повысить производительность труда.

Тем не менее, главных препятствий продолжать сдерживать рост.

Его минеральные ресурсы, вероятно, одним из самых богатых в мире, но лишь частично развитый.

Китай приобрел некоторые весьма сложные производственные мощности за счет торговли, а также имеет встроенный ряд передовых машиностроительных заводов способна производить более широкого спектра современного оборудования, в том числе ядерного оружия и спутников, но большая часть промышленного производства по-прежнему исходит от относительно плохо оснащенные заводы.

Рыночных реформ Китай осуществил за последние два десятилетия, развязанной индивидуальной инициативы и предпринимательства, при сохранении государственного господства экономики.

Оба форума начнется во вторник.

В 2009, глобальной ODI объем достиг $1.1 триллион, и Китай приходится около 5.1 процентов от общей.

Китай стремится стать крупным новым в мире автомобиль энергетического рынка путем 2020 с 5 млн. автомобилей.

Хотя Китай остается развивающейся страной с относительно низким доходом на душу населения, он пережил огромный экономический рост с конца 1970-х.

Сельское хозяйство на сегодняшний день является ведущим оккупации, с участием более 50% населения, Хотя обширные грубые, высокой местности и больших засушливых районах – особенно на западе и севере – предел культивации для всего около 10% от поверхности земли.

Китай является крупнейшим в мире производителем риса и пшеницы и крупнейший производитель сладкого картофеля, сорго, нация, ячмень, арахис, кукуруза, сои, и картофель.

Свиней и птицы широко подняты в Китае, ВАЖНО Обстановка Экспорт Staples, таких как свиньи щетина и яичные продукты.

Нефтяные месторождения открыты в 1960-х годов и после сделал Китай является нетто-экспортером, и к началу 1990-х годов, Китай пятое место нефти в мире производителя.

Китай входит в число четырех мире ведущих производителей сурьмы, магний, верить, вольфрам, и цинка, и занимает второе место (после США) в производство соли, шестое золото, и восьмой в свинцовой руды.

Уголь является единственным наиболее важным источником энергии в Китае; угольных тепловых электрических генераторов обеспечивают более 70% электроэнергии в стране.

Большинство крупных городов Китая, как Шанхай, Тяньцзинь, и Гуанчжоу, также основные порты страны.

Перейдите по этой ссылке:
Мрачные перспективы найма в Гонконге

High gas prices? Purchase restrictions in mega cities? Neither can keep China from pursuing its ardent love affair with the automobile.

Such at least is the view of senior J.D. Power analyst Geoff Broderick, who says the power of that love could push vehicle sales in China to as high as 35 million a year by 2018 — a near doubling of the market.

Auto sales hit 18 million vehicles in China last year. In the U.S., Между тем, overall auto sales last year totaled 12.7 млн..

“We’re bullish on China,"Г-н. Broderick said in an interview in Beijing on Friday. “The whole center of gravity in the global auto market has shifted from the West to the East, and this (Китай) is where we’re going to see action, at least over the next several years.”

The driving force behind that sunny view: Growing discretionary income in China’s smaller, “lower-tier” cities.

Just half a decade ago, в 2005, only about 20% of global demand for automobiles came from so-called emerging markets, according to Mr. Broderick. По 2010, roughly half of global auto demand – 51% to be precise – came from developing economies. China is the dominant, 800-pound gorilla of the emerging world, becoming the world’s biggest vehicle market in 2009 and retaining that position ever since.

Еще, over the past year, demand for automobiles in China has slowed significantly. Last year auto sales grew only 5%, and many analysts and foreign auto maker executives in China say the era when yearly demand increases of more than 20% were common isn’t coming back, at least in the near term. Most forecasts for this year point to year-on-year growth of less than 10%.

Those forecasts point to, among other factors, a cancellation last year of generous government sales incentives for small cars and license-plate restrictions in mega cities like Beijing and Shanghai aimed at alleviating world-famous traffic congestion.

But according to Mr. Broderick, “an appreciable increase” in discretionary spending by a surging middle class of consumers in lower-tier cities, many of them located in China’s inland western region, will likely compensate for growth impediments elsewhere in the market.

“Those second-tier and third-tier cities in China are going to be the real battle ground for auto makers,Сказал он. “Those cities have a lot of room for per capita income to rise.”

Another key source of Mr. Broderick’s optimism comes from a comparatively low rate of car ownership in China, especially in those lower-tier cities. In China overall, only about 50 people per 1,000 people currently own cars, he said, repeating a widely used estimate. That car “penetration” rate is unlikely any time soon to reach levels seen in the U.S., where nearly 900 people per 1,000 own cars, he said. “But there’s a lot of room to grow.”

Overall demand for automobiles in China over the next seven years should hit “30 to 35 million” vehicles, сказал он.

There are notable challenges to growth besides the purchase restrictions, including a lack of sufficient roads, high gasoline prices, and more stringent fuel-economy and emission requirements.

But unless gas prices or taxes hurt the consumer’s pocketbook “in a serious way,"Г-н. Broderick said. “I don’t think it’s going to dent the market’s longer-term momentum.”

– Norihiko Shirouzu

Китай как правило, осуществляются реформы в постепенных или частям.

Китайское правительство стремится увеличить мощность производства энергии из других источников, помимо угля и нефти, и уделяет особое внимание ядерным и другим развития альтернативной энергетики.

Республика Китайская Народная является вторым по величине экономикой в ​​мире после Соединенных Штатов как номинальный ВВП ($5 trillion in 2009) и по паритету покупа�трлнй способности ($8.77 trillion in 2009).

Доступные энергии недостаточно, чтобы работать на полностью установлен промышленный потенциал, и транспортной системы является недостаточным, чтобы переместить достаточное количество таких критических элементов, как уголь.

Два сектора отличались во многих отношениях.

Технологического уровня и стандартов качества в отрасли в целом все еще довольно низким, Несмотря на значительные изменения со времени 2000, Вдохновленные в части иностранных инвестиций.

К началу 1990-х годах эти субсидии начали быть устранены, в значительной степени из-за вступление Китая во Всемирную торговую организацию (ВТО) в 2001, которая несет в себе требования для дальнейшего экономической либерализации и дерегулирования.

На вершине этого, прямых иностранных инвестиций (ПИИ) В этом году была установлена ​​на “превосходить $100 миллиард”, по сравнению с $90 млрд. в прошлом году, должностных лиц министерств предсказал.

По данным министерства, ODI Китая вырос на 1.1 процентов по сравнению с годом ранее $56.53 миллиард, который включает в себя инвестиции $47.8 млрд. в нефинансовых секторах по всему миру, вверх 14.2 процентов в годовом исчислении.

Ожидается, что Китай есть 200 млн. автомобилей на дороге 2020, рост давления на энергетическую безопасность и окружающую среду, правительственных чиновников сказал вчера.

Задача Китая в начале 21-го века будет, чтобы сбалансировать его высоко централизованной политической системы с более децентрализованной экономической системы.

С конца 1970-х, Китай decollectivized сельского хозяйства, приносит огромные успехи в производстве.

За исключением сельского хозяйства оазис в Синьцзяне и Цинхай, некоторые орошаемых земель во Внутренней Монголии и провинции Ганьсу, и защищенных долинах в Тибете, сельскохозяйственное производство ограничено на востоке.

Животноводство в больших масштабах ограничивается приграничных районах и провинциях на севере и западе; это, главным образом, кочевой тип.

Китай является одним из основных минерально-производителей стран мира.

Глинозема встречается во многих частях страны; Китай является одним из крупнейших мировых производителей алюминия.

В 1990-х годов программа акционерные и большей рыночной ориентации вступил в силу; Однако, государственные предприятия продолжают доминировать многих ключевых отраслях в социалистической рыночной экономики Китая.

As part of its continuing effort to become competitive in the global marketplace, China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001; its major trade partners are the United States, Япония, Южная Корея, Тайвань, and Germany.

Читать остальное здесь:
China to Buy More Than 30 Million Cars a Year by 2018, Says J.D. Power

Автор: Петр Drysdale, Редактор, Восточная Азия форум

China’s vice president, Xi Jinping, is set to make a hugely important visit to the US next week, prior to succeeding President Hu Jintao as China’s next president later this year.

The visit will set the stage for interaction between the next generation of Chinese leaders and American political leadership and help to shape how the most important bilateral relationship in the world will be managed over the medium-term future.

In recent times, the political-security dimension of the Sino-American relationship has received increasing attention, as the US ‘pivots’ toward Asia. But core and immediate challenges concern the economic relationship and how rapid change in the Chinese economy plays into US and global interests. These matters will be at the forefront of Mr Xi’s meetings when he visits Washington.

In a recent interview in the Wall Street Journal Nick Lardy argues that ‘if China does not accelerate the pace of reforms that support rebalancing, when global growth resumes a more normal pace, China’s external surplus likely would expand again. That would mean that China again would be subtracting from economic growth in the rest of the world, including the United States. That would make it more difficult for the United States to reduce its budget deficit to put its government debt on a more sustainable path’.

Lardy’s lead essay this week reflects the view set out in his new book that correcting the numerous imbalances is necessary to propel China toward a new and sustainable growth path.

Among the problems, Lardy says, are: a low share of private consumption expenditure and a super-elevated share of investment in GDP; an outsized manufacturing sector and a diminutive service sector; an unprecedentedly large hoard of official holdings of foreign exchange; and an increasingly high and probably unsustainable rate of investment in residential property. Mitigating these imbalances will require fundamental market-oriented reforms. The pace of reform will need to be accelerated to achieve sustainable, domestically driven growth and harmonious relationships in the international economy, notably with the United States.

Chinese economists, such as Yiping Huang at Peking University, have made the same point about the distortions in Chinese markets that need to be addressed to correct imbalances in the economy.

Lardy worries about the tardy pace of reform in China. ‘Market-oriented interest rate liberalisation, eliminating the under-pricing of energy and other factor inputs used predominantly in manufacturing, greater flexibility of the exchange rate and an even more rapid expansion of the social safety net are essential to moving China onto a consumption-driven growth path. Many of these reforms have been on the agenda for a decade or more’, он говорит,, ‘yet with the exception of increased social expenditures, progress has been painfully slow’.

According to Lardy, the explanation is that financial repression, the undervaluation of the currency, and factor price distortions advantage some sectors and regions of China at the expense of others. The benefits of unbalanced growth flow to export- and import-competing industries (which enjoy elevated profits at the expense of firms in the service sector), coastal provinces (which have enjoyed supercharged economic growth at the expense of inland regions), the real estate and construction industries (which have benefitted from interest rate policies that have made residential property a preferred asset class), and China’s banks (which enjoy lofty profits that come with the high spread between deposit and lending rates set by the central bank) who have acquired disproportionate influence over economic policy. And to date they have been able to block much-needed policy reforms. These reforms are necessary if China is to move toward a more balanced, sustainable growth path.

Lardy also argues that there are immediate dangers to strong growth in China from excessive investment in housing and real estate. The share of residential investment in GDP has doubled to more than 10 per cent between 2003 и 2010, a share far higher than that in countries with comparable per capita incomes. This was induced, Lardy argues, in part by households channelling their savings into housing in the face of negative real deposit rates in the state-owned banking system.

While Huang sees less immediate risk of collapse in the housing market, residential housing has become the single most important driver of China’s economic growth since the middle of the last decade. Lardy is right in observing that this cannot last indefinitely, although how long it lasts is a very important question.

Peter Drysdale is Editor of the East Asia Forum.

1. Sustaining economic growth in China
2. Reform in China: Experience with economic system reform
3. Chinese economic risks

Посмотреть сообщение:
Chinese economic reform, full front and centre

From WSJ’s Davos blog:

Standard Chartered PLC remains bullish on the major Asian economies of India and China, encouraged by the policy outlook for the two countries this year, the bank’s Asia chief executive said.

The U.K.-based lender, which focuses almost exclusively on Asia and emerging economies, also sees European rivals retreating from those markets as they are beset with challenges at home, Standard Chartered Asia Chief Executive Jaspal Bindra said in an interview on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.

In India last year, Standard Chartered confronted a range of challenges including slowing growth, rising interest rates and a depreciating rupee. Revenue from the bank’s India unit fell by 12% in the first half of 2011 and by the “mid-teens” in the third quarter, Group Finance Director Richard Meddings said earlier.

Г-н. Bindra blamed higher interest rates. “Interest rates went up almost 400 basis points in a short period, and it is very difficult, if you do wholesale business with the best clients in the country, to pass on a 400 basis point increase at any one time.”

But the central bank’s surprise move to loosen monetary policy this week has sent a “clear signal” that there will be no further rate hikes and the government is shifting its focus to promoting growth, Г-н. Bindra said.

The Reserve Bank of India Tuesday held its key lending rate steady for a second straight policy meeting but cut the minimum cash reserve requirement by 0.50 percentage point to ease liquidity.

“The government has for a long time shown a huge preference to manage inflation through monetary policy,Сказал он. But following the RBI cut, “I think we will see a more balanced approach.”

Г-н. Bindra also said that the recent “normalization” of the rupee exchange rate — it is up 6% against the dollar so far this year after declining 15.1% в 2011 — will encourage renewed foreign investment.

В Китае, Г-н. Bindra believes authorities will be successful in guiding the economy to a “soft landing” ahead of a leadership transition at the end of the year.

“The priority for all of 2012 and beyond is going to be ‘how do we keep things stable,’ as they have this transition of power at the top,Сказал он, adding that not just the top political leadership, but also the leaders of major financial institutions and regulators are all due to be reshuffled. “It is quite a massive-scale change of power.”

As European banks regroup and retreat from Asia, Standard Chartered sees an opening. The trend is especially pronounced in industries including shipping and commodities and in markets like Indonesia and India where dollar liquidity is scarce, сказал он.

“It gives us an opportunity to scale up market share, и второй, it gives us a little bit of pricing advantage.”

– Aaron Back. Следуйте за ним на Твиттере @ AaronBack.

В последние годы, В Китае снова активизировались о своей поддержке ведущих государственных предприятий в секторах, он считает важным, чтобы “экономическая безопасность,” явно ищет для содействия глобальной конкурентоспособности национальных чемпионов.

В 2009, Китай объявил, что 2020 это приведет к сокращению выбросов углерода 40% от 2005 уровнях.

Правительство также обращает внимание на внешнюю торговлю в качестве основного транспортного средства для экономического роста.

Реструктуризации экономики и в результате повышения эффективности внесли свой вклад в более чем десятикратное увеличение ВВП, начиная с 1978.

Различий между этими двумя секторами в совокупности привели к форме экономико-культурно-социального разрыва между сельскими и городскими районами, которая является одним из основных разделение в китайском обществе.

Технологического уровня и стандартов качества в отрасли в целом все еще довольно низким, Несмотря на значительные изменения со времени 2000, Вдохновленные в части иностранных инвестиций.

усиление интеграции Китая в мировую экономику и ее растущее стремление использовать рыночные силы, регулирующие внутреннее распределение товаров усугубляют эту проблему.

Рост как исходящие инвестиции, и входящих инвестиций, Китай отражает растущую экономическую стране власть и привлекательность в качестве объекта для инвестиций.

” Хотя эта цифра составляет уже “весьма удивительно,” объем “недостаточно велика” учитывая экономический рост в Китае и местных компаний’ растущего спроса на международные возможности, Шен сказал.

Она также планирует продать более 15 миллионов из самых экономичных автомобилей в мире каждый год к тому времени.

Хотя Китай остается развивающейся страной с относительно низким доходом на душу населения, он пережил огромный экономический рост с конца 1970-х.

С конца 1970-х, Китай decollectivized сельского хозяйства, приносит огромные успехи в производстве.

Китай является крупнейшим в мире производителем риса и пшеницы и крупнейший производитель сладкого картофеля, сорго, нация, ячмень, арахис, кукуруза, сои, и картофель.

Китай занимает первое место в мировом производстве мяса (в том числе говядины, телятина, баранина, ягненок, и свинины).

Рост внутреннего спроса в начале 1990-х годов, Однако, заставил народ импортировать большее и большее количество нефти.

Китай ведущих полезных ископаемых экспорт вольфрама, сурьма, верить, магний, молибден, ртуть, марганец, барит, и соли.

Крупные промышленные продукты текстиля, химических веществ, удобрений, машины (особенно для сельского хозяйства), переработанных продуктов питания, железо и сталь, строительные материалы, пластики, игрушки, и электроники.

Кирпич, плитка, цемент, и пищевой промышленности встречаются почти в каждой провинции.

Перейдите по этой ссылке:
Давос: StanChart Бычье на Китай, Индия

Автор: Bradley O. Babson

At the moment of his accession to power, Kim Jong-il inherited the devastating impact of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the subsequent trade shock to North Korea’s economic output, the onset of the worst famine in modern history, and a humanitarian crisis that required a direct appeal to the outside world for help.

By the late 1990’s, he was forced to accept the realities of dependence on international aid, the rise of farmers markets as a grassroots response to the famine, and the introduction of capitalist notions such as ‘profits’ in the Constitution itself. Kim even briefly entertained the notion of establishing relationships with the International Monetary Fund, Всемирный банк, and Asian Development Bank, attracted by the prospects for international finance, but balking at requirements for transparency, conditionality, and rules-based relations. Throughout his leadership tenure he only half-heartedly and grudgingly accepted the growing role for markets in the North’s economy and maintained a deep ambivalence to the prospect of economic empowerment of the North Korean people. His desire to maintain highly-centralised control over all aspects of North Korean society was sharply at odds with the decentralisation of information and decision-making needed for a market economy to replace a failed socialist economic management system. В результате, economic policy in the Kim Jong-il era was more shaped by events and forces for change than used as a tool to guide a managed process for national development.

Experiments in economic reforms were not accompanied by policies or the institution-building that would have been needed for recreating the economic success stories of China and Vietnam. Rather, the guiding light of economic policy for Kim Jong-il was mobilising resources for his purse from both domestic and foreign sources.  He was quite creative in devising ways to achieve this, such as demands for ‘loyalty’ payments, structuring of foreign exchange earning activities to send the cash to the top, negotiating with foreigners to get goodies for concessions, and pursuing illegal and internationally-sanctioned revenue-raising ventures.  At the end of the day, the North Korean economy under Kim Jong-il remains highly vulnerable to shortages of food, энергия, and foreign exchange, with pressures for transformation of the economic system coming from both internal and external dynamics of change at work in North Korea.

Looking ahead, the key question is not whether there will be changes in economic policy but whether changes will be in the direction of building a market economy or governed by a new dynamic of competition for resources among contending parties for power.  The more the new regime leans towards the Worker’s Party, the more likely it will follow Chinese supported policies of developing a market economy under the guidance of the Party and gradually shift to funding defence needs from a centralised budget rather than the military having its own economic organs such as trading companies and banks that service them. The more the regime tilts towards the military, the more likely that competition for resources will trump incentives for pursuing systemic change.

While there may be an inclination to perpetuate the patronage practices of the elites by the Kim family, it is not likely that loyalties will transfer simply to the new leadership through such patronage alone. New incentives for supporting the regime will need to be pursued.  Key metrics of such changes will be in: 1) the ownership and transferability rights of assets; 2) the restructuring of the financial system including banking supervision, monetary-management policies, and development of the tax system and public expenditure policies to accommodate a market economy; 3) the support for decentralisation of economic decision-making and empowerment of traders and entrepreneurs; 4) the willingness to follow rules-based international practices in commerce and finance; и 5) the legal reforms to protect rights of parties in a market economy. This is a tall order, but one that might lead to a new dawn for North Korea.

Bradley O. Babson is a consultant on Asian affairs with a focus on Korea and Northeast Asia economic cooperation. He is retired from a career at the World Bank, with a concentration in East Asia. In the early 1990s he worked on the opening up of Vietnam and was the first World Bank Resident Representative in Hanoi.

1. Kim Jong Il’s death: continuity plus opportunity to engage
2. Северная Корея: new opportunities in a post-Kim Jong-il landscape
3. Kim Jong-il’s visit to China: What should we expect?

См. оригинальный пост здесь:
После Ким Чен Ира: Будут ли изменения или преемственность в северокорейской экономической политики?

Мумбаи: Sensex поставил отличную производительность в первый день прошлой недели в году 2011, взлетали над 200 точками фоне низких объемов.

Телеком, технология, банков, FMCG и капитальных товаров были основным секторам, которые привели митинг. Позитивные данные макро-и конгресс перейти от США тоже поднял доверие индийские акции в понедельник.

Sensex попытался ударить 16000 знак, но все его попытки не увенчались успехом. Он коснулся внутридневной максимум 15,998.44, Перед закрытием 232.05 указывает на 15,970.75.

Nifty розы 65 точками, до конца в 4,779.

Сударшан Sukhani из s2analytics.com рекомендуется проведение длинную позицию. Он не думает, что этот рынок готов к зрелым и продать.

Телеком, технология, банков, FMCG и капитальных товаров были основным секторам, которые привели митинг.

Митинг около 1 процентов в американские рынки в пятницу возглавил позитивные данные макро-и конгресс двигаться. Конгресс США одобрил два месяца расширение сокращение налога на зарплату и на экономические данные, продаж домов вырос до 7-месячного максимума в ноябре.

Поставка домов на рынке был самым низким в 5.5 лет, whichrekindled надежда возрождения на рынке жилья.

Американские и европейские рынки сегодня закрыты на Рождество праздником.

Вернуться на индийский рынок, TECK и ИТ превзошли другие показатели – получил 2.6 процентов, а 2.4 процентов, соответственно.

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Sensex концах 232 очков на Infosys, RIL поддержки