Автор: Malcolm Fraser, former Prime Minister of Australia
We frequently question China’s military build-up without paying regard to China’s own circumstances. Their nuclear armoury, например, is not much larger than Israel’s and probably on par with Britain and France.

So far it has only been a deterrent force in fixed silos. But for such a deterrent force to be effective it would need to be housed in submarines whose location cannot be easily found.
In Australia the press seems quite hostile to China in ways I believe are misleading and damaging. A more reasoned consideration od China’s defence posture is called for.
China has on its borders some of the world’s most unsettled and dangerous countries.
North Korea is unpredictable. The outcome in Iraq is problematic. In Afghanistan there is little sign of real military progress. Then there is Pakistan. Here, an overwhelming number of Pakistanis believe the US has required Pakistan, in the name of the war against terror, to do things contrary to Pakistan’s own interests. India and Pakistan, dangerous rivals capable of starting a nuclear war, are right on China’s borders.
These unsettled borders give China a strong external rationale for reinvigorating her armed forces. But China’s military development is miniscule compared to the 60 per cent of world expenditure on arms which derives from the US alone. Even Japan’s military forces are far more formidable than many believe.
The United States" attempts under the Bush administration to persuade Japan, India and Australia to participate in an anti-ballistic missile shield could only be regarded as inimical to China"s interests. And it was foolish of Australia and of Japan to consider participating in such arrangements.
In recent years successive governments have believed they best served Australia’s interests by doing whatever the US wanted. Such attitudes do not strengthen the alliance but weaken it because most Australians believe we have Australian interests which do not always coincide with those of the US. Blind submission on the part of government undermines public support for the alliance. Participation in the Iraq War was a classic example. ANZUS was invoked, but ANZUS is a treaty strictly limited by geography. Iraq and Afghanistan are far beyond its bounds.
It was not only a question of going to war at America’s behest. We also accepted, unlike the UK, that the US had the right to imprison Australians in Guantanamo Bay and subject them to torture. There was no protest from the Australian Government. Вместо, there was connivance in a trial that would have been regarded as illegal in Australia or in Britain.
America now moves in a different direction but the legacy of debt and over-extended commitments created in the Bush era have left President Obama with intractable and extraordinarily difficult problems.
What happens at the end of President Obama’s first term is enormously important not only to America but to the world. Whatever the criticisms might be from time to time ,America has done so much for the world and American leadership remains the best hope for peace and cooperation.
Australia has always had a sense of dependence. We had no defence or foreign policy up to the time of the second war — we relied on Britain. When British help proved unavailable we immediately turned to the US, where for too many people it has remained ever since. That has infected the relationship, especially in recent years.
Too few people know that when the Chinese were shelling the Quemoy and Matsu offshore islands in the Taiwan Straits in the middle 1950s, at a time when President Eisenhower moved the Pacific Fleet in or close to those Straits, Prime Minister Menzies quietly told the President that if there were a war with China over Taiwan that was their affair and not Australia’s. Contrast that attitude with attitudes expressed by recent governments.
The last Defence White Paper was arguably the worst White Paper published in over 40 лет. It has been the most damaging, the most destructive, the most extravagant and arguably the most foolish statement of Austrlain interests.
The US alliance is important but it does not mean we should do exactly what America wants. We must have a mind of our own and carefully judge Australia’s interests. We have not done that in recent times.
We have not all fully accepted that we are part of one world and being one world does not just imply financial deregulation and freedom of trade. It implies, in all respects, policies that are free of racism and discrimination on any grounds whatsoever.
The debates that continue in our Federal Parliament do us great damage and demean Australia. In my view, they do not represent the best of Australia which would support quite different policies if given the lead.
These may be sobering thoughts but they are ones that Australians need to consider if we wish, as we should, to play a constructive role in Asian and world affairs. We have done good things in the post war years. We need to build on them and put aside the negatives. With other middle-ranking powers we could do much to create a more secure world, and especially a securer Asia.
The Rt Hon. Malcolm Fraser AC CH was the Prime Minister of Australia from November 1975 until March 1983. This is a digest of a speech he presented at ANU Asia Pacific Week 2011.
- The Australian Defence Force and Timor-Leste: looking toward 2020
- China’s Defence White Paper in brief
- Australian-American partnership in 21st century Asia Pacific
Смотрите оригинальную здесь:
Обороны Китая осанки и австралийские интересы