Siam News Network

Burma’s pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi met late Monday at her lakeside home with billionaire American philanthropist George Soros, the latest public figure to pay the Nobel Prize laureate a visit since her release a year ago from 15 years of on-and-off house arrest.

Soros, whose foundation supports grantees that provide uncensored news on Burma and activists who call public attention to abuse of power, arrives in the wake of a stream of visits, predominantly by senior foreign dignitaries.

Political Science Professor Carl Thayer of the Australian Defense Force Academy says influential business and political leaders are lining up to ride the crest of change in Burma and to reinforce reform efforts.

“As intelligent as she is, she has been relatively isolated,” he says. “And she needs, I think, the advice of people like Soros and others, the financing and foundations, and people on the ground to provide and reinforce her efforts.”

In the past month, Aung San Suu Kyi met with the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Thailand’s Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, and foreign ministers from Indonesia and Japan. Later this week, British Foreign Secretary William Hague is expected to visit.

Hague’s visit will coincide with a general amnesty for prisoners announced Monday by Burma’s state media.

In what is typically a regular gesture to mark Burma’s Independence Day, selected prisoners will have their sentences reduced beginning Tuesday. It is not clear how many in jail will be affected by the amnesty or how many political prisoners will be included.

Burma is holding hundreds of people for their political beliefs. Clinton and other officials visiting Burma have joined Aung San Suu Kyi in calling for their immediate release.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, says Clinton’s visit opened the way for diplomatic engagement with Burma, also known as Myanmar.

“It is a green light for other countries to begin to lift sanctions [and] provide development assistance,” he says. “They have to be careful by not promoting the commercial interests too much too soon. There are some dissident groups that see all of this as a big kind of commercial deal.”

Burma is a major source of natural gas, gems, and timber, but trade is limited by Western countries because of economic sanctions over the military’s suppression of democracy and human rights.

Since the government of President Thein Sein took office in March, replacing overt military rule, it won praise for a series of liberal political and economic moves. President Thein Sein held direct talks with Aung San Suu Kyi after assuming office.

Thitinan says cooperation between the two is vital for the momentum of reform to be sustained. He says there are still hardliners in the government who would derail the process if it goes too fast.

“The momentum that we are seeing is just unprecedented and breathtaking,” he says. “It is going to be difficult to reverse some of it without incurring a great cost to the Myanmar rulers. Even if they want to slow it down, to reverse it, now they are in too deep. Now I think leading up to the Myanmar chairmanship of ASEAN 2014. I expect the reforms to be sustained.”

On Sunday, Burmese authorities hiked gas prices by 30 percent. A similar unannounced price jump in 2007 sparked protests that were later crushed by the military.

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In Burma, Visiting Dignitaries Line Up to Ride Crest of Change

After almost one month, Vietnamese tourists are allowed to join tour groups to Thailand following the country’s worst floods in almost 60 years and killed more than 600 people. Vietnamese tour groups have commenced to Thailand for the first time in almost one month. All tour groups from Vietnam were cancelled at the end of October when floodwaters began to take hold parts of the capital Bangkok.  It is estimated that the cancellations affected more than 1000 travellers from the fellow ASEAN country. Head of PR at a major tour agency in Ho Chi Minh City, Nguyen Minh Man said that tour groups resumed yesterday to the two prominent tourist cities of Bangkok and Pattaya.  Tour operator Viettravel, decided to commence the tours to Thailand after it convinced more than two-thirds of a tour group that the situations on the ground are safe for tourists. Viettravel has told local travellers that the conditions in the Thai capital have returned to normal and that Suvarnabhumi Airport has remained free of flooding.  The company has also had to reassure Vietnamese travellers that supermarkets were fully stocked and food shortages were not a problem. Another travel agency from Ho Chi Minh City, SaigonTourist, has informed its outbound travellers that tours will restart in early December.  A spokesman for the company has said that travellers in the initial tours would be enticed with significant discounts and a range of other benefits.

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Vietnamese tour groups have begun returning to Thailand after 1 month flooding

Author: Julie Sheetz, Harvard University

Even before the announcement that ASEAN member states had awarded the 2014 rotating chairmanship to Burma, it was already a foregone conclusion.

Burma’s campaign to be reinstated as a regular member of ASEAN gained steam when Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Marty Natalegawa, began hinting at approval before his visit to Naypyidaw, Burma’s capital, last month. And once Indonesia was on board, other regional players joined in. Still, it is very uncertain what — if anything — ASEAN will achieve through this move.

Burma is the only current ASEAN member never to have chaired an ASEAN Summit meeting. In 2004, regional powers — including Indonesia — pushed Burma to relinquish its chairmanship scheduled for 2006, acting under immense pressure from the US and EU. At the time, Burma was facing intense scrutiny for the circumstances surrounding Aung San Suu Kyi’s re-incarceration. Leaders of major ASEAN dialogue partners refused to attend summit meetings convened by the Burmese military government. And they made the convincing case that it was in ASEAN’s best interest to back up the organisation’s talk of supporting human rights with punitive action on Burma. Indonesia, as a newly democratised power in ASEAN, was particularly keen to burnish its international credentials by playing into Western concerns about the impact Burmese chairmanship would have on ASEAN credibility.

Burmese officials began campaigning for the 2014 regional chair position earlier this year, in a widely recognised bid to accord the newly elected government a sense of legitimacy. Yet, although the new Burmese government has taken steps to rectify past mistakes in releasing scores of political prisoners and hosting several visits by US Special Envoy to Burma Derek Mitchell, Burma is still far from meeting international standards on political conduct.

Are these signs of progress enough to warrant any such move to grant Burma’s recycled leadership regional and global legitimacy? The short answer is, no. Despite Aung San Suu Kyi’s tentative support for the move, and a well-timed warning by Zay Htay, Director of Burmese President Thein Sein’s Office, these national leaders are playing their own domestic game. In his statement urging support for reinstating Burma in the regular ASEAN leadership rotation, Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa spoke passionately about moving forward. But Burma’s track record is depressing and ASEAN is exposing itself to a lot of risk by jumping into the fray of Burma’s domestic politics and international reputation.

So, why would ASEAN members support this move? Western criticism of Burma over the years has been an obstacle to a stronger partnership with and within ASEAN. The US, particularly during the second Bush administration, did not want to be seen as sanctioning engagement with the country. Even the Obama administration’s decision to re-evaluate its behaviour with regards to Burma was a controversial one. So far, the US has rightly reiterated the need for continued Burmese progress on human rights and democratisation ahead of stronger ties with the US or the annulment of harsh sanctions. And although the putative meet is still more than two years away, even a surprise announcement that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will visit the country in December does not guarantee that a US president would attend an ASEAN Summit in Burma in 2014.

ASEAN is gambling with the progress it has made over the past decade in consolidating its relationship with key dialogue partners and regularising its global interactions. ASEAN members may still decide that the organisation is now so central to Asian regional architecture that it is the US that cannot afford not to attend a meeting. But a decision by US leaders to boycott attendance for one year of ASEAN meetings is unlikely to destroy its relationship with the bloc, or to undermine ASEAN members’ interest in deeper bilateral partnerships with the US. In other words, the US has relatively little to lose.

It is a bit different for Indonesia. For years, ASEAN members have worried that the organisation would lose relevance over the coming years through the combined effects of a string of chairmanships by relatively weaker powers and China’s continued rise on the international scene. As such, Indonesia was left to use its own chairmanship this year to lay out a coherent regional agenda through the implementation of the ASEAN Community in 2015. And as the emerging ASEAN mediator par excellence with Burma, Indonesia arguably has a decent shot at prying open its doors. But Indonesia’s reputation is becoming more bound up in Burma than ever before, and it may bear the brunt of international criticism for this collective naïveté.

In the lead up to 2014, ASEAN powers, like Indonesia, whose international reputations are at stake in this gamble may need to convince Western partners that expending additional political capital on Burma is worth the investment. Currently, that investment looks quite risky, but one can only hope it pays off, and is not the beginning of the end for enhanced regional unity and integration.

Julie Sheetz is a graduate student at Harvard University.

1. Washington changes gears on Burma
2. ASEAN and the Burmese elections: What are the options?
3. Imagining a new human rights strategy for Burma

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Burma: a test that ASEAN may be failing

JAKARTA – Indonesia’s rupiah trillionaires have so much money that it’s difficult to count it.

Sinar Mas Group Eka Tjipta Widjaja, the palm oil king worth $8 billion, according to Forbes. More In Indonesia Tragedy Mars Southeast Asia Games Football Final Goals, Not Gold to Decide Bragging Rights at SEA Games Asean Wraps Up Big Year with Bang in Bali, Now What? Survey: Humans Put Orangutans at Risk In Bali, Sun, Surf and the Secret Service Forbes came out with its annual list of the country’s richest this week , and it included many familiar faces among the archipelago’s palm oil, paper, coal and tobacco barons. Most were smiling because they are worth billions more this year than before, thanks to rising stock and commodity prices, and growing domestic demand. “At a time when most of the world’s economies are stagnating, Indonesia’s list of wealthiest individuals demonstrates the continued growth of the economy and its opening up to reward entrepreneurial talents,” said Justin Doebele, chief editorial advisor of Forbes Indonesia. However, when journalists or analysts ask someone like Eka Tjipta Widjaja – the palm oil king worth $8 billion, according to Forbes – or Anthoni Salim – the head of the property-to-food Salim Group, worth $3.6 billion – to give their actual worth, they rarely get a number.

So how accurate are these kinds of estimates? The answer is it depends – on how open the companies are, and the accuracy of the assumption behind the computations performed to reach the final figures. Comparing the Forbes Top Ten to a similar survey by Indonesia’s business magazine, Globe Asia, in June points to the guess-work involved. While both Top Tens include mostly the same names, there are sometimes huge gaps between what Forbes said an individual was worth and what Globe Asia said.

The difference between the two net worth estimates was more than $1 billion for most of the top-ranked rich. Of course, the Globe survey was published five months ago, and commodity and stock price fluctuations can account for some of the difference, though it also seems unlikely those fluctuations account for all the differences. Back then, Globe estimated Achmad Hamami, head of the group which distributes Caterpillar in Indonesia, was worth $250 million; the Forbes survey this week put him at $2.2 billion.

Susilo Wonowidjojo is worth $10.5 billion according to Forbes; in the older Globe survey he was pegged at about one fifth that value. When a billionaire’s companies are publicly-listed, it is relatively easy to figure their worth.

The value of their shareholdings are public knowledge and their companies are required to disclose their assets and liabilities. For unlisted entities it gets tougher, particularly in Indonesia, where there are few public documents and a lot of secretive companies. It’s sometimes difficult to get even a good photo of the country’s tycoons, so trying to find out what they are worth requires some detective work. “It is guess-work, but it is not just plucking numbers out of thin air,” said Shoeb Kagda, editor of Globe Asia. “Some of them are very shy and low-profile but there are ways” to dig up what they are worth, he said. Forbes says it follows a strict and proven methodology to come to its numbers, and confirms with the individuals and companies involved when possible. In particular, it says it estimates the value of non-listed assets by choosing a similar listed company and extrapolating from its capitalization. Globe Asia uses its reporters and connections to get a hint at what revenues are for the non-listed companies and calculates from there.

The massive difference between Globe’s and Forbes’ estimate of Mr. Hamami’s net worth, for example, could be due to the fact that his group has just started to reveal results of its coal operations, said Mr. Kagda. One thing everyone can agree upon though is that all the biggest billionaires have so much money that they have earned their spots in the spotlight. “If you are talking about someone that is worth $11 million, then $500 million here or there is an acceptable margin of error,” said Mr. Kagda.

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Tracking Trillionaires Can Be Tricky

Author: Kirill Muradov, HSE

Although Russia has intensified its efforts to join the WTO by the end of 2011, membership remains elusive.

This may have direct implications for Russia’s timid free trade undertakings in the Asia Pacific and elsewhere.The ongoing free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations with New Zealand have been mostly in parallel with the WTO accession talks, while an FTA with Vietnam is in an initial exploratory phase.

Russia has never explicitly articulated its trade policy, but most see it as being ad hoc rather than systemic and strategic. Neither has Russia traditionally sought to establish FTAs, except for previous arrangements with Commonwealth of Independent States members. It was only in 2010 that the Russian leadership began to show interest in FTAs, supposedly driven by increased global negotiating activity and insistent proposals from trade partners. And President Medvedev’s more recent remarks on the subject have sent clear signals that Russia is looking to explore new FTAs in the Asia Pacific.

Before the start of 2011, Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development, which is largely responsible for setting trade policy, received more than 25 proposals to start FTA studies or negotiations. A shortlist of candidates included New Zealand, Vietnam, Syria, Egypt and the European Free Trade Area (EFTA) — made up of Liechtenstein, Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. Initial research reviewing the scope of FTA options commissioned by the Ministry in 2011 also covered Iran, the Persian Gulf countries, ASEAN and the EU. The selection of partners now must be in agreement with the other Customs Union members. Since 2010, the Customs Union — constituted by Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan — has required the three countries to negotiate trade agreements with external partners as a single entity.

Russia commenced fully-fledged negotiations with EFTA and New Zealand in early 2011, although its government widely regards these as pilot projects. Relatively low trade values and an expectation of painless FTA impacts were among the most influential reasons for selecting these two candidates. In contrast, Vietnam — with a sizable goods and services export potential — is an uncomfortable FTA partner for Russia and its Customs Union partners. But Russia yielded to the pressure of its old ally, a fresh disciple of bilateralism. This said, a joint expert group was established in 2010 to review the feasibility of an FTA with Vietnam.

New Zealand’s motivation for seeking an FTA with Russia and the Customs Union reflects its role as a prime mover of FTAs with large emerging markets, primarily in the Asia Pacific. New Zealand was the first country to sign a bilateral WTO protocol with Russia, and will apparently be among the first to forge a high quality FTA with it. The countries’ respective ministers endorsed a roadmap for this particular agreement in November 2010, and suggested that ‘the negotiations be concluded no later than by the end of 2011 and lead to the establishment of broad-based free trade areas with [a] high level of liberalisation between the participants’.

The next negotiating round is expected to be held in late October or early November 2011, but the dynamic so far suggests the FTA will not be established within the specified timeframe. New Zealand’s Prime Minister John Key was reported as saying after the last round that ‘there’s a lot of goodwill on both sides, but there’ll inevitably be stumbling blocks along the way’. One complexity of the negotiations owes to the emerging Customs Union regime that governs members’ external trade in goods — though trade in services, investment, movement of natural persons and other related areas remain the individual responsibilities of members.

But the real complexity arises in the wider context of Russia’s trade policy initiatives. Russia has been trying to achieve a synchronised three-layered economic integration: at the global level (through WTO accession), the regional level (through the Customs Union, which is to evolve into a Common Economic Space) and the bilateral level (with New Zealand and others). The feasibility of this ‘all-in-one’ approach, as opposed to sequencing trade agreements, is questionable. In all circumstances, the WTO commitments should be the lowest common denominator for any quality arrangements and should be prioritised. There are no notable success stories of non-WTO members entering into modern bilateral FTAs with WTO members.

For New Zealand, an agreement with Russia as a non-WTO member is definitely not the outcome it had been expecting. As in the case of the New Zealand-China FTA, the bilateral negotiations should be an extension of, not a precursor to, cooperation between the two countries within the WTO. The fading likelihood of Russia’s WTO accession deal in 2011 signifies a setback in Russia’s pilot FTA projects. If this is the case, Moscow will more than likely revert to virtual integration into the growing Asia Pacific economy. And the fragility of Russia’s formal integration efforts is expected to become a sensitive issue for its upcoming performance as the APEC chair in 2012.

Kirill Muradov is Research and Education Programs Coordinator at the International Institute for Education in Statistics, Higher School of Economics, National Research University in Moscow.

1. Russia in Asia and the Pacific
2. Institutional architecture in Asia: Challenges for the US and Russia
3. U.S. trade policy in Asia: Going for the Trans-Pacific Partnership?

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Russia in the Asia Pacific: a bleak outlook

Thailand Business News

ASEAN is actively discussing a common target for the region to work towards having a higher percentage of renewable energy sources and new energy technologies, such as cleaner coal technology, in the regional energy mix, including the projected targets until 2030 Share this Article

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ASEAN to Accelerate Energy Connectivity

Sectors linked to external demand (namely, manufacturing, hotels and transport) have been the main contributors to growth since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, and have also determined the dynamics of the economy in 2008-09. These sectors have accounted for almost all of the annual changes in real GDP.
The continuation of certain government policies, especially the pension to the elderly and free education should also support higher consumption levels for the poor. The longer-term goal of reducing reliance on external demand will take time, especially given political uncertainties that hinder the government’s ability to implement not only its investment program but also needed structural reforms.

‘‘The bigger Thai companies going on international road shows still stop in the US, Europe, Hong Kong and Singapore. But a few are also beginning to go to China and the Middle East as well,’’ Mr Wood said.
‘‘Institutional investors want to have the ability to get in or out of a stock without significantly influencing the share price.

Scars of the Viet Nam War will be held at the ArtSpace Seogyo in Seoul from November 12 to 19.

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Photographer Traces the Heartbreak of War

Political tensions in Thailand next door also are leading companies to Vietnam. Calm has returned to the Thai capital after May’s deadly confrontations in Bangkok between anti-government protesters and the military, but it was one of many political outbursts in Thailand over the years

On November 7, 2006, Vietnam became the World Trade Organization (WTO)’s 150th member. Vietnam’s access to WTO was intended to provide an important boost to Vietnam’s economy, to ensure the continuation of liberalizing reforms and create options for trade expansion. However, WTO accession also brings serious challenges, requiring Vietnam’s economic sectors to open the door to increased foreign competition.

Vietnam’s government is rolling out the red carpet for foreign investment as Vietnam holds the role as chair of ASEAN in 2010. Vietnam has particular interest in cooperation in scientific research, education and training with the ASEAN community, achieving remarkable results in these areas in co-operation with Singapore and Thailand. However, Vietnam, like most developing countries, suffers from poor infrastructure and Vietnam needs to rely more on its internal economic strength and less on foreign investment to capitalize on its integration into ASEAN. If the country’s internal elements are not ready, the country will not be able to take full advantage of opportunities, creating even more challenges.

Education and the system of higher learning and technical schools is very important to business as it provides the trained workers and also a system to transfer skills and train new employees needed in a modern business society. In Vietnam, the economy in recent years has had a remarkable performance. GDP growth increased 8.5% in 2006, 8.2% in 2007 and 8.5% in 2009. In 2009, according to the Asia Development Bank (ADB) in their latest late September, 2009 revision the bank predicted that growth would be 4.7% for all 2009. Growth in 2010 is projected at 6.5 percent according to the same source. Future growth is highly dependent on a high quality workforce who are better skilled and trained in modern education and with better quality language skills.

Burma’s opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, says she had a positive first meeting last week with President Thein Sein. The meeting is one of several initiatives the Burmese government is undertaking to reach out to its critics. While the international community has welcomed the outreach, there is skepticism over whether the government will follow-up with substantive action.

Aung San Suu Kyi debriefing

Aung San Suu Kyi met with supporters of the National League for Democracy to discuss her talks with officials in the capital, Naypyidaw.

While Suu Kyi released few substantive details about her conversations, she said her meeting with the president was an opportunity for both to put aside their differences for the sake of the common interests of the Burmese people.

She said the two had positive discussions that were candid and frank.  Burmese state media said both sides had sought to find common ground to cooperate.

But human-rights advocates in Thailand remain skeptical.  Bo Kyi, the joint secretary for the prisoner advocacy group the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (Burma), says a key sign to progress would be the release of what human-rights groups estimate are 2,000 political prisoners.  

“Just only a meeting,” said Bo Kyi, “is not enough; I did not see any sign for the release of all political prisoners, and human-rights violations is still widespread, and of course human-rights violations are all across Burma.”

Analysts say the talks mark a key step towards reconciliation between pro-democracy supporters of Aung San Suu Kyi and the military backed government.  The new, nominally civilian, government was elected last year in a vote that outside nations have called a sham aimed at keeping the military in power.

Human rights

The spokesperson for rights group Alternative ASEAN Network, Debbie Stothard, says the government hopes to gain international support in its bid to host Association of South East Asian Nations meetings in 2014 and to ease economic sanctions over its human-rights record.

“The regime has been on a high-gear charm offensive because they want to prevent the United Nations from starting a commission into war crimes and crimes against humanity in Burma,” she said. “They want to secure the chair of ASEAN for 2014 and they are working very hard to remove economic sanctions.”

ASEAN members have pressed the United States and Europe to lift economic sanctions against Burma, saying the country was making progress in political reforms during the past year.

Part of the effort to assess the new government’s progress on political reforms and human-rights issues is occurring this week, with the five-day visit of U.N. human-rights envoy Tomas Ojea Quintana. This is the first time in 18 months the government has granted him permission to visit.

He is to meet with government officials, as well as Aung San Suu Kyi.

Prisoner-rights advocate Bo Kyi says Quintana should call for several changes to improve the human-rights situation in Burma, including an independent judiciary.

Independent judiciary

“It is very difficult to see the positive changes of the Quintana visit.  What he can do is to make a suggestion to the Burmese military regime to do something,” said Bo Kyi. “If the Burmese government follows his recommendation we can see something positive – especially Mr. Quintana will make his suggestion to the Burmese regime to release all political prisoners to change the judiciary system because there is no independent judiciary system in Burma.”

Quintana is expected to discuss his preliminary observations at a news conference Thursday in Rangoon.

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Burmese Government Reaches Out to Critics