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The release of more than 200 political prisoners on January 13 and the subsequent decision by Washington to announce its readiness to send an ambassador to Burma are the latest steps taken by both governments to normalize relations.

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Taiwan’s opposition Democratic Progressive Party leader Tsai Ing-wen made history by being the island’s first female presidential candidate, but her wider-than-expected defeat last Saturday to incumbent Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang has raised questions about the future of her moderate approach.

Ms. Tsai finished with 45.6% of the vote to Mr. Ma’s 51.6%, a loss that prompted her to say she would resign as DPP leader.

A professor before she became a politician, Ms. Tsai is often credited with lifting the pro-independence DPP out of the mire after former president Chen Shui-bian’s rocky and scandal-ridden tenure at the helm.

“She brings gentleness and sensibility to the party,” Joseph Wu, a former Taiwan envoy to the U.S. and a top advisor to the DPP, said shortly after the election. “She is also very capable in facilitating talks between the factions in the party and consolidating opinions.”

That conciliatory leadership style and approachable personality were what drove her surging popularity both within and outside the party, he added.

But Ms. Tsai also won support by dialing back the DPP’s pro-independence rhetoric, analysts said. An example of that more moderate China policy was her appeal for further dialogues with Beijing and her promise to accept all 16 cross-strait trade agreements signed under Mr. Ma’s leadership.

Although she adamantly rejected the 1992 Consensus—a tacit understanding between the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party that Taiwan and China are one country but each is free to define the term as they see fit—her proposal of a new “Taiwan Consensus” did not completely shut out the option of an eventual unification, a sharp detour from the policy pursued by Mr. Chen.

Despite that softening, Ms. Tsai’s candidacy still did not appear sit well with leaders in Beijing, who warned that any deviation from the 1992 Consensus would compromise the growing harmony on the Taiwan Strait. During the campaign, the “Taiwan Consensus” became one favorite points of attack for Mr. Ma and the KMT, who pointed to it as evidence that Ms. Tsai was naïve to the realities of cross-strait relations.

Yet some analysts said they expected Beijing might still be open to dialogue with a Tsai administration — a notion considered far-fetched during the previous DPP regime.

What effect Ms. Tsai’s loss will have on the party’s platform remains to be seen. The fact that she lost by six percentage points – late polls had her losing by between 3% and 5% — is already being interpreted by some as an indictment of her decision to emphasize social equality and her deviation from the party’s anti-China orthodoxy.

“Obviously, a campaign focused on social justice was not enough to excite the traditional DPP supporters,” said Wu, adding in the future, the party should incorporate more of the possible threats to Taiwan’s sovereignty under the KMT such as China’s continual interference in Taiwan’s quest for more international participation.

Shelley Rigger, a professor of political science at Davidson College expressed similar views, saying that while Ms. Tsai should be lauded for restoring burnishing the DPP’s image, she might have overlooked a key constituency – the “green” pro-independence die-hards—who might constrain the DPP from moving to the center.

“[Tsai] did as well as anyone could have done at pacifying the deep greens, by refusing to accept the ’92 consensus, and at the same time minimizing the role of those ideological issues in the elections, by trying not to talk about that anymore than she had to. The result was still hitting that 45% ceiling,” she said.

Ms. Tsai’s tenure as party leader will officially terminate on March 1, the DPP said, and it’s unclear what she plans to do next. She has said she plans to maintain an office and rumors suggest she may take the reins at a think tank she helped set up.

Analysts say Beijing is concerned less about Ms. Tsia’s future and more about who her successor might be and whether that person will continue the moderate stance she has championed.

“Beijing takes a great interest in the DPP’s leadership because there is always a chance that the DPP might return to power. But I think no matter who becomes the next DPP chairman, the party will retain the more moderate stance,” said Shih Cheng-feng, a dean at National Dong Hwa University.

Party heavyweights Frank Hsieh and Su Tseng-chang are widely speculated to be vying for the seat, though some political commentators on the island say the party should allow up-and-coming stars, such as some of the current DPP county magistrates, to have a shot.

Whether or not Ms. Tsai tries her luck again in 2016, her contribution to the DPP seems likely to be remembered as revolutionary, in a moderate way.

– Jenny W. Hsu

Measured on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis that adjusts for price differences, China in 2009 stood as the second-largest economy in the world after the US, although in per capita terms the country is still lower middle-income.

In 2009, the global economic downturn reduced foreign demand for Chinese exports for the first time in many years.

The People’s Republic of China is the world’s second largest economy after the United States by both nominal GDP ($5 trillion in 2009) and by purchasing power parity ($8.77 trillion in 2009).

Available energy is insufficient to run at fully installed industrial capacity, and the transport system is inadequate to move sufficient quantities of such critical items as coal.

The two most important sectors of the economy have traditionally been agriculture and industry, which together employ more than 70 percent of the labor force and produce more than 60 percent of GDP.

A report by UBS in 2009 concluded that China has experienced total factor productivity growth of 4 per cent per year since 1990, one of the fastest improvements in world economic history.

The market-oriented reforms China has implemented over the past two decades have unleashed individual initiative and entrepreneurship, whilst retaining state domination of the economy.

China now ranks as the fifth largest global investor in outbound direct investment (ODI) with a total volume of $56.5 billion, compared to a ranking of 12th in 2008, the Ministry of Commerce said on Sunday.

In 2009, global ODI volume reached $1.1 trillion, and China contributed about 5.1 percent of the total.

China reiterated the nation’s goals for the next decade – increasing market share of pure-electric and plug-in electric autos, building world-competitive auto makers and parts manufacturers in the energy-efficient auto sector as well as raising fuel-efficiency to world levels.

In large part as a result of economic liberalization policies, the GDP quadrupled between 1978 and 1998, and foreign investment soared during the 1990s.

Even with these improvements, agriculture accounts for only 20% of the nation’s gross national product.

In terms of cash crops, China ranks first in cotton and tobacco and is an important producer of oilseeds, silk, tea, ramie, jute, hemp, sugarcane, and sugar beets.

Horses, donkeys, and mules are work animals in the north, while oxen and water buffalo are used for plowing chiefly in the south.

Coal is the most abundant mineral (China ranks first in coal production); high-quality, easily mined coal is found throughout the country, but especially in the north and northeast.

There are also deposits of vanadium, magnetite, copper, fluorite, nickel, asbestos, phosphate rock, pyrite, and sulfur.

China also has extensive hydroelectric energy potential, notably in Yunnan, W Sichuan, and E Tibet, although hydroelectric power accounts for only 5% of the country’s total energy production.

Other leading ports are rail termini, such as Lüshun (formerly Port Arthur, the port of Dalian), on the South Manchuria RR; and Qingdao, on the line from Jinan.

Read more here:
What Next for Taiwan’s Opposition?

The Center for International Trade Studies at the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce expects Thai export to grow by only 6.8 to 13.7 percent with a total value of 259 billion U.S. dollars due to several risk factors.

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Chamber of Commerce Predicts Export Growth for 2012 between 6.8 to 13.7%

At the end of 2009, real GDP was back at pre-crisis levels, as measured in seasonally adjusted terms.
The continuation of certain government policies, especially the pension to the elderly and free education should also support higher consumption levels for the poor. The longer-term goal of reducing reliance on external demand will take time, especially given political uncertainties that hinder the government’s ability to implement not only its investment program but also needed structural reforms.

Lagging the chart was paper and printing materials, with a -1.3% TSR for 2009, professional services with a meager 4.5% gain, and property funds up 31%.The Shareholder Scorecard, published annually by the Bangkok Post and the AWR Lloyd-PYI group, is an analysis of the two factors that underlie investor returns — dividends and capital gains.
In part, this may reflect the greater volatility in earnings in smaller companies.
Introduction The modern Thai Capital Market traces its origins back to the early 1960s. In 1961 Thailand implemented its first five-year National Economic and Social Development Plan to support the promotion of economic growth and stability as well as to develop the Kingdom’s standard of living. Following upon this, the Second National Economic and Social Development Plan (1967-1971) then proposed for the first time that an orderly securities market be established in order to mobilize additional capital for national economic development.

The creation of Thailand’s first officially sanctioned and regulated securities market was initially proposed as part of the Second National Economic and Social Development Plan (1967-1971). In outlining its proposal for the creation of a supervised securities market, the Second National Development Plan stressed that the market’s most important role would be to mobilize funds to support Thailand’s industrialization and economic development.

Every year on Dec. 31, a number of cities stand out as being the hottest spots to ring in the New Year: New York, London, Sydney and Tokyo. Now Beijing wants to join that list too—and hopes doing so will help boost tourism to the city.

And if not many people show up to the party? Well, that’s part of the plan, too.

The city is unveiling its first-ever western New Year’s extravaganza, rolling out a digital light show surrounding one of the city’s most renowned cultural icons–the Temple of Heaven, where Chinese emperors in centuries past went to pray for good harvests.

As midnight approaches, digital lights will transform part of the temple grounds into a giant, skyward-facing analog clock. Hundreds of local students will ride stationary green bikes that have been placed facing the temple and will light up—an intended salute to the importance of environmental protection. Meanwhile, LED lights will shoot colored beams into the sky and a countdown of the final seconds left in 2011 will be projected onto the temple itself, a triple-tiered gable structure built in the early 1400’s, creating 3-D visual effects.

But there will be one major difference between Beijing’s attempt and other hyped international celebrations, such as New York’s famed ball-dropping and the ringing chimes coming from Big Ben in London.  Unlike Times Square, where one million people flock each New Year’s Eve, according to the Times Square Alliance, Beijing’s festivities won’t be open to the public.

“The park isn’t big enough to hold that many people,” said Sun Weijia, the vice chairman of Beijing Municipal Commission of Tourism Development and one of the event’s organizers. Organizers have, however, contacted travel agencies to extend invitations to more than 500 foreign tourists who will be in the city, and journalists have also received invitations, Mr. Sun said, predicting a total audience of more than 3,000 people.

The goal of the event is not to draw big crowds to one site but to serve as an advertisement to the world’s tourists, Mr. Sun said, adding that the city gained global attention in the run-up to the Olympics and that the spotlight has since faded.

“Some zones [at the event] won’t have an audience,” he said, adding, “we designed them especially for television broadcasts.”

Some might point out that China is home to one of the world’s largest public squares, a space that dwarfs Times Square and could fit many more people.

But China’s leaders have long opposed big public gatherings, especially at Tiananmen Square. The image of thousands of students rallying for democratic rights in 1989 remains a fresh threat in the minds of many officials. In this upcoming year of leadership transition, the focus will be on stability.

China’s masses will have to watch the celebration from their televisions at home. Events will be broadcast by those lucky enough to invited to the Temple of Heaven — camera crews and other media types who can broadcast the show across the nation and to the rest of the world.

Beijing’s New Year’s bash will differ from those in many cities in another respect, too: a lack of fireworks. Fireworks of the tube-launched, explosive variety are by no means rare on the streets of Beijing, and their public use can be a substantial fire hazard in the period around Chinese New Year (which will fall in late January in 2012).

But the Beijing government’s countdown won’t have any. “Beijing doesn’t allow the use of fireworks, especially in imperial parks,” Mr. Sun said.

–Laurie Burkitt and Owen Fletcher; follow Laurie at @lburkitt and follow Owen at @owenfletcher.

In recent years, China has re-invigorated its support for leading state-owned enterprises in sectors it considers important to “economic security,” explicitly looking to foster globally competitive national champions.

The Chinese government faces numerous economic development challenges, including:
(a) reducing its high domestic savings rate and correspondingly low domestic demand through increased corporate transfers and a strengthened social safety net;
(b) sustaining adequate job growth for tens of millions of migrants and new entrants to the work force; (c) reducing corruption and other economic crimes; and
(d) containing environmental damage and social strife related to the economy’s rapid transformation.

The People’s Republic of China is the world’s second largest economy after the United States by both nominal GDP ($5 trillion in 2009) and by purchasing power parity ($8.77 trillion in 2009).

Some economists believe that Chinese economic growth has been in fact understated during much of the 1990s and early 2000s, failing to fully factor in the growth driven by the private sector and that the extent at which China is dependent on exports is exaggerated.

The two most important sectors of the economy have traditionally been agriculture and industry, which together employ more than 70 percent of the labor force and produce more than 60 percent of GDP.

China has acquired some highly sophisticated production facilities through trade and also has built a number of advanced engineering plants capable of manufacturing an increasing range of sophisticated equipment, including nuclear weapons and satellites, but most of its industrial output still comes from relatively ill-equipped factories.

China’s increasing integration with the international economy and its growing efforts to use market forces to govern the domestic allocation of goods have exacerbated this problem.

China now ranks as the fifth largest global investor in outbound direct investment (ODI) with a total volume of $56.5 billion, compared to a ranking of 12th in 2008, the Ministry of Commerce said on Sunday.

Last year was the eighth consecutive year that the nation’s ODI had grown.

China is aiming to be the world’s largest new energy vehicle market by 2020 with 5 million cars.

In large part as a result of economic liberalization policies, the GDP quadrupled between 1978 and 1998, and foreign investment soared during the 1990s.

Even with these improvements, agriculture accounts for only 20% of the nation’s gross national product.

Except for the oasis farming in Xinjiang and Qinghai, some irrigated areas in Inner Mongolia and Gansu, and sheltered valleys in Tibet, agricultural production is restricted to the east.

Horses, donkeys, and mules are work animals in the north, while oxen and water buffalo are used for plowing chiefly in the south.

Coal is the most abundant mineral (China ranks first in coal production); high-quality, easily mined coal is found throughout the country, but especially in the north and northeast.

China’s leading export minerals are tungsten, antimony, tin, magnesium, molybdenum, mercury, manganese, barite, and salt.

China also has extensive hydroelectric energy potential, notably in Yunnan, W Sichuan, and E Tibet, although hydroelectric power accounts for only 5% of the country’s total energy production.

The iron and steel industry is organized around several major centers (including Anshan, one of the world’s largest), but thousands of small iron and steel plants have also been established throughout the country.

See the article here:
No Crowds for China’s New Year

Author: Bradley O. Babson

At the moment of his accession to power, Kim Jong-il inherited the devastating impact of the collapse of the Soviet Union, the subsequent trade shock to North Korea’s economic output, the onset of the worst famine in modern history, and a humanitarian crisis that required a direct appeal to the outside world for help.

By the late 1990’s, he was forced to accept the realities of dependence on international aid, the rise of farmers markets as a grassroots response to the famine, and the introduction of capitalist notions such as ‘profits’ in the Constitution itself. Kim even briefly entertained the notion of establishing relationships with the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Asian Development Bank, attracted by the prospects for international finance, but balking at requirements for transparency, conditionality, and rules-based relations. Throughout his leadership tenure he only half-heartedly and grudgingly accepted the growing role for markets in the North’s economy and maintained a deep ambivalence to the prospect of economic empowerment of the North Korean people. His desire to maintain highly-centralised control over all aspects of North Korean society was sharply at odds with the decentralisation of information and decision-making needed for a market economy to replace a failed socialist economic management system. As a result, economic policy in the Kim Jong-il era was more shaped by events and forces for change than used as a tool to guide a managed process for national development.

Experiments in economic reforms were not accompanied by policies or the institution-building that would have been needed for recreating the economic success stories of China and Vietnam. Rather, the guiding light of economic policy for Kim Jong-il was mobilising resources for his purse from both domestic and foreign sources.  He was quite creative in devising ways to achieve this, such as demands for ‘loyalty’ payments, structuring of foreign exchange earning activities to send the cash to the top, negotiating with foreigners to get goodies for concessions, and pursuing illegal and internationally-sanctioned revenue-raising ventures.  At the end of the day, the North Korean economy under Kim Jong-il remains highly vulnerable to shortages of food, energy, and foreign exchange, with pressures for transformation of the economic system coming from both internal and external dynamics of change at work in North Korea.

Looking ahead, the key question is not whether there will be changes in economic policy but whether changes will be in the direction of building a market economy or governed by a new dynamic of competition for resources among contending parties for power.  The more the new regime leans towards the Worker’s Party, the more likely it will follow Chinese supported policies of developing a market economy under the guidance of the Party and gradually shift to funding defence needs from a centralised budget rather than the military having its own economic organs such as trading companies and banks that service them. The more the regime tilts towards the military, the more likely that competition for resources will trump incentives for pursuing systemic change.

While there may be an inclination to perpetuate the patronage practices of the elites by the Kim family, it is not likely that loyalties will transfer simply to the new leadership through such patronage alone. New incentives for supporting the regime will need to be pursued.  Key metrics of such changes will be in: 1) the ownership and transferability rights of assets; 2) the restructuring of the financial system including banking supervision, monetary-management policies, and development of the tax system and public expenditure policies to accommodate a market economy; 3) the support for decentralisation of economic decision-making and empowerment of traders and entrepreneurs; 4) the willingness to follow rules-based international practices in commerce and finance; and 5) the legal reforms to protect rights of parties in a market economy. This is a tall order, but one that might lead to a new dawn for North Korea.

Bradley O. Babson is a consultant on Asian affairs with a focus on Korea and Northeast Asia economic cooperation. He is retired from a career at the World Bank, with a concentration in East Asia. In the early 1990s he worked on the opening up of Vietnam and was the first World Bank Resident Representative in Hanoi.

1. Kim Jong Il’s death: continuity plus opportunity to engage
2. North Korea: new opportunities in a post-Kim Jong-il landscape
3. Kim Jong-il’s visit to China: What should we expect?

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After Kim Jong-il: will there be change or continuity in North Korean economic policy?

The Apple Investor is a daily report from SAI.

Sign up here to receive it by email . AAPL Still Battling XOM For Market Cap King Last week was good to Apple, which closed above $400 for the first time since early November. But the stock gained little ground in its running battle with Exxon Mobil for the market cap championship, as the rise in crude prices has pushed the oil giant up as well. Catalysts for Apple include iPhone upgrade cycles and adoption; update to the iPad in early 2012; continued market share growth of the Mac business line; penetration in China and emerging markets; the evolution and potential re-conception of Apple TV ; and platforms such as Siri, mobile advertising (iAd), books and publishing, gaming, mapping and social ( Ping ).

Shares of Apple trade at 8.9x Enterprise Value / Trailing Twelve Months Free Cash Flow (including long-term marketable securities). Will Apple Make The Perfect TV While Google TV Continues To Disappoint? (The Perfection Paradox) The single biggest reason Google TV didn’t work was it didn’t solve any of the biggest shortcomings of our living room television viewing experience. Apple, meanwhile, will approach the market with the aim of making TV simple again, by making the “perfect” TV. Henry Blodget at Business Insider says that TV users just want to press “on” and watch what they want to watch .

That’s it.

Steve Jobs probably figured out how to allow TV users to press “on” and then say, “The Jets game,” or “Addams Family” or “The next Sopranos episode” or “our Hawaii vacation videos” and have the TV just play them. If Apple can do that, they will have a massive hit. iOS Mobile Devices Accounted For Over 90% Of December Mobile Retail Sales (RichRelevance) iPads and iPhones accounted for over 92% of online retail sales not originating from a desktop device for December, according to RichRelevance, easily beating out Android .

Shoppers on Apple devices were also willing to spend more, with an average order value of $123 versus Android’s $101 (that’s 19% more). Mobile shopping is still a drop in the bucket compared to desktop shopping, with just 3.7% of total online retail dollars spent in the U.S. Goes to show that the browsing experience is key to mobile commerce. Why Isn’t Safari Growing Like Chrome? ( TechCrunch ) Remember Safari ? While Google’s Chrome has skyrocketed from obscurity in 2008 to over 25% last month, Apple’s web browser lingers somewhere between 5-8%. But Why? Windows ? But Safari has actually been available for Windows quite a bit longer than Chrome has been.

Speed? Chrome is know for being the fastest browser available in terms of both page rendering and JavaScript performance. Promotion? Or lack thereof. Google does quite a bit of promotion for its browser. However, Safari being bundled by default with iTunes should have helped it gain massive Windows market share. Extensions? Safari has had them as well since mid-2010.

That said, Chrome’s extensions are better and much more plentiful. Neglect? Apple is more inclined to throw resources at native work rather than web work. Of course, this could all change if devices like the iPad really are the future of general purpose computing. A New Era Is Coming For Apple In 2012 (paidContent) Apple will remain the most compelling story in tech not just because of the iPhone and its cousin, the iPad, but because of the immense pressure on CEO Tim Cook and Apple’s management team to live up to the standard set by a legend.

This quarter will be the first full quarter that Cook and his lieutenants will have been in charge of Apple. And the company has never been stronger, and Cook has been auditioning for this job for several years.

The company could make or break mobile payments this year and revolutionize the way we watch TV. It’s hard to imagine Apple losing steam in 2012. Get Ready For Apple’s Monster Quarter, And The Stock To Soar (Seeking Alpha) Apple is unique among America’s mega caps due to the company’s ongoing rates of revenue and earnings growth.

That said, the rate of Apple’s share price appreciation has fallen behind the rate of earnings growth over the past four quarters. Despite the 83% growth in earnings per share in fiscal 2011, at Apple’s closing price of $403.33 last week, the share price has risen only 25% year-over-year.

There’s a disconnect between the perceived limits to Apple’s continuing strong growth and the reality of the company’s potential for growth. Please follow SAI on Twitter and Facebook . Join the conversation about this story » See Also: Here’s Why The Apple TV Might Be Awesome And Google TV Will Continue To Suck…

THE MICROSOFT INVESTOR: Stagnant Shares Are No Reason To Ignore In Microsoft THE GOOGLE INVESTOR: Why Google+ Is Now A Must For Businesses

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THE APPLE INVESTOR: 2012 Will Usher In A New Era For Apple (AAPL)

A recent poll has revealed that Thailand’s Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra scored 6.49 on her overall performance as Prime Minister. A survey shows many Thais see PM as determined in her role. Despite the mediocre rating, the  4,238 participants in the Suan Dusit Poll gave her credit for her attitude in the top job with 7.08 out of 10.

The survey was undertaken with all of Thailand’s provinces represented on various factors to gauge their opinions of the performance of the current government. According to the results, people were far more critical towards the government as a whole, with the cabinet scoring  6.44 for its intention to work, 6.33 for sincerity, 6.21 for   performance, 6.13 for not interfering in the work of permanent officials, 6.09 for unity, and 5.87 for honesty. For individual ministers, respondents gave the Defence Ministry the highest score of 6.63, Tourism and Sports 6.56, Tourism and Sports 6.44, Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives 6.43, Foreign Affairs 6.42, Culture 6.41, Social Development and Human Security 6.40, Education 6.37, Industry 6.36, Finance 6.33, Science and Technology 6.27, Labour 6.13, Interior 6.10, Natural Resources and Environment 6.09, Energy 6.06, Justice 6.05, Commerce 5.91, Transport 5.87, and Information and Communication Technology 5.84. Opinion of the government varied according to region, with the score for overall performance at 7.29, while the South were least supportive, providing a rating of 5.44. Related Video

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Thailand scores Yingluck a 6.49 out of 10

The commerce minister is confident that the new flood defense plan, which will be drafted by the end of this month, will be able to help boost foreign investor confidence and get them to continue to use Thailand as their production base. Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Minister Kittirat Na Ranong said, after giving a speech on the role of sufficiency economy in the global economy and the government’s policies, that he is confident large foreign-owned factories will still want Thailand as their production base.

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New Flood Defense Plan Seen to Help Boost Foreign Investor Confidence

For 2009 as a whole, nonetheless, real GDP fell 2.3 percent despite a pick-up in consumption in the fourth quarter, external demand will be the main contributor to growth in the near term.
However, the upside is limited due to political and regulatory uncertainty, including from possible political violence and the Map Ta Phut court case. The government investment plan is proceeding at a slow pace, but public investment should contribute to growth.

‘‘The bigger Thai companies going on international road shows still stop in the US, Europe, Hong Kong and Singapore. But a few are also beginning to go to China and the Middle East as well,’’ Mr Wood said.
‘‘Institutional investors want to have the ability to get in or out of a stock without significantly influencing the share price.
Introduction The modern Thai Capital Market traces its origins back to the early 1960s. In 1961 Thailand implemented its first five-year National Economic and Social Development Plan to support the promotion of economic growth and stability as well as to develop the Kingdom’s standard of living. Following upon this, the Second National Economic and Social Development Plan (1967-1971) then proposed for the first time that an orderly securities market be established in order to mobilize additional capital for national economic development.

The creation of Thailand’s first officially sanctioned and regulated securities market was initially proposed as part of the Second National Economic and Social Development Plan (1967-1971). In outlining its proposal for the creation of a supervised securities market, the Second National Development Plan stressed that the market’s most important role would be to mobilize funds to support Thailand’s industrialization and economic development.