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From WSJ’s Davos blog:

Standard Chartered PLC remains bullish on the major Asian economies of India and China, encouraged by the policy outlook for the two countries this year, the bank’s Asia chief executive said.

The U.K.-based lender, which focuses almost exclusively on Asia and emerging economies, also sees European rivals retreating from those markets as they are beset with challenges at home, Standard Chartered Asia Chief Executive Jaspal Bindra said in an interview on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.

In India last year, Standard Chartered confronted a range of challenges including slowing growth, rising interest rates and a depreciating rupee. Revenue from the bank’s India unit fell by 12% in the first half of 2011 and by the “mid-teens” in the third quarter, Group Finance Director Richard Meddings said earlier.

Mr. Bindra blamed higher interest rates. “Interest rates went up almost 400 basis points in a short period, and it is very difficult, if you do wholesale business with the best clients in the country, to pass on a 400 basis point increase at any one time.”

But the central bank’s surprise move to loosen monetary policy this week has sent a “clear signal” that there will be no further rate hikes and the government is shifting its focus to promoting growth, Mr. Bindra said.

The Reserve Bank of India Tuesday held its key lending rate steady for a second straight policy meeting but cut the minimum cash reserve requirement by 0.50 percentage point to ease liquidity.

“The government has for a long time shown a huge preference to manage inflation through monetary policy,” he said. But following the RBI cut, “I think we will see a more balanced approach.”

Mr. Bindra also said that the recent “normalization” of the rupee exchange rate — it is up 6% against the dollar so far this year after declining 15.1% in 2011 — will encourage renewed foreign investment.

In China, Mr. Bindra believes authorities will be successful in guiding the economy to a “soft landing” ahead of a leadership transition at the end of the year.

“The priority for all of 2012 and beyond is going to be ‘how do we keep things stable,’ as they have this transition of power at the top,” he said, adding that not just the top political leadership, but also the leaders of major financial institutions and regulators are all due to be reshuffled. “It is quite a massive-scale change of power.”

As European banks regroup and retreat from Asia, Standard Chartered sees an opening. The trend is especially pronounced in industries including shipping and commodities and in markets like Indonesia and India where dollar liquidity is scarce, he said.

“It gives us an opportunity to scale up market share, and second, it gives us a little bit of pricing advantage.”

– Aaron Back. Follow him on Twitter @AaronBack.

In recent years, China has re-invigorated its support for leading state-owned enterprises in sectors it considers important to “economic security,” explicitly looking to foster globally competitive national champions.

In 2009, China announced that by 2020 it would reduce carbon intensity 40% from 2005 levels.

The government has also focused on foreign trade as a major vehicle for economic growth.

The restructuring of the economy and resulting efficiency gains have contributed to a more than tenfold increase in GDP since 1978.

The disparities between the two sectors have combined to form an economic-cultural-social gap between the rural and urban areas, which is a major division in Chinese society.

The technological level and quality standards of its industry as a whole are still fairly low, notwithstanding a marked change since 2000, spurred in part by foreign investment.

China’s increasing integration with the international economy and its growing efforts to use market forces to govern the domestic allocation of goods have exacerbated this problem.

The growth in both outbound investment from, and inbound investment to, China reflects the nation’s rising economic power and attractiveness as an investment destination.

” Although the figure is already “quite amazing,” the volume is “not large enough” considering China’s economic growth and local companies’ expanding demand for international opportunities, Shen said.

It also aims to sell more than 15 million of the most fuel-efficient vehicles in the world each year by then.

Although China is still a developing country with a relatively low per capita income, it has experienced tremendous economic growth since the late 1970s.

Since the late 1970s, China has decollectivized agriculture, yielding tremendous gains in production.

China is the world’s largest producer of rice and wheat and a major producer of sweet potatoes, sorghum, millet, barley, peanuts, corn, soybeans, and potatoes.

China ranks first in world production of red meat (including beef, veal, mutton, lamb, and pork).

Growing domestic demand beginning in the mid-1990s, however, has forced the nation to import increasing quantities of petroleum.

China’s leading export minerals are tungsten, antimony, tin, magnesium, molybdenum, mercury, manganese, barite, and salt.

Major industrial products are textiles, chemicals, fertilizers, machinery (especially for agriculture), processed foods, iron and steel, building materials, plastics, toys, and electronics.

Brick, tile, cement, and food-processing plants are found in almost every province.

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Davos: StanChart Bullish on China, India

The prime minister is attending the World Economic Forum in Switzerland and meeting with leading business people to clarify Thailand’s flood recovery plan. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is in Davos, Switzerland today to take part in the 42nd World Economic Forum. She’s scheduled to take part in a round-table luncheon with leaders and leading business people to discuss sustainable economic growth.

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PM to Meet Leading Businesspeople at World Econ Forum

A severe drought and a decline in rice prices in early 2010 do not bode well for agricultural production and consumption, although increased employment in manufacturing will partly offset the impact to agriculture.
All in all, a more favorable external environment should help boost real GDP growth to 6.2 percent in 2010. After this year, slower growth in developed countries, emerging capacity constraints as capacity idled during the crisis is quickly put to use, and the weight of the ongoing political turmoil on new investment, should likely keep growth below Thailand’s historical average of 5.1 percent. On the whole, Thailand’s fiscal and financial picture remains solid

The relative strength and power of sovereign wealth funds is massively increasing, and the money has to go somewhere.
But another factor is likely the presence of larger, institutional investors in large-cap stocks who are more concerned about long-term performance than short-term market movements.

In 1972 the Government took a further step in this direction by amending the “Announcement of the Executive Council No. 58 on the Control of Commercial Undertakings Affecting Public Safety and Welfare”. The changes extended Government control and regulation over the operations of finance and securities companies, which until then had operated fairly freely. Following these amendments, in May 1974, long-awaited legislation establishing “The Securities Exchange of Thailand” (SET) was enacted. This was followed by revisions to the Revenue Code at the end of the year, allowing the investment of savings in the capital market. By 1975 the basic legislative framework was in place and on April 30, 1975, “The Securities Exchange of Thailand” officially started trading. On January 1, 1991 its name was formally changed to “The Stock Exchange of Thailand” (SET).

New Delhi business newspaper economic times says that India and Thailand will sign a free trade agreement by the middle of this year, according to Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

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Thailand to expand trade and investment with India

Sectors linked to external demand (namely, manufacturing, hotels and transport) have been the main contributors to growth since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, and have also determined the dynamics of the economy in 2008-09. These sectors have accounted for almost all of the annual changes in real GDP.
Overall, domestic demand should provide a positive but limited contribution to growth: vulnerable households lost ground in 2009 and risks are substantial in 2010, as falling agricultural output due to the current drought may offset opportunities from the improved overall economic environment. Household consumption levels, which are highly correlated with the poverty rate, contracted in 2009 despite the rebound in the last quarter of the year, suggesting a likely increase in the poverty rate compared to 2008, especially when compounded by the loss in purchasing power from the food and fuel crisis of 2008. The outlook for 2010 is uncertain : average wages are likely to increase, thanks to the reallocation of labor from agriculture to manufacturing. Although labor markets appear very tight, with unemployment below 1 %, the data do not account for the large number of workers who moved to lower-productivity jobs in agriculture and informal services due to the crisis. Many of these workers are now returning to manufacturing, which offers higher wages than agriculture.

Total shareholder returns (TSR) for 2009 are calculated by assuming that investors reinvest all cash received over the course of the year to determine a total return from one’s investment. The 2009 analysis covers 505 companies from the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment and is based on share valuations as of Dec 31 and dividend payments made over the 2009 calendar year.
The TSRs for the two groups are similar.

The release of more than 200 political prisoners on January 13 and the subsequent decision by Washington to announce its readiness to send an ambassador to Burma are the latest steps taken by both governments to normalize relations.

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Author: Doan Hong Quang, World Bank

Consensus-based policy making is a salient feature of Vietnam, where important decisions are collectively made.

Consensus is needed not only for the formulation of a reform vision but also for the elaboration and implementation of this vision. Doi Moi, the most successful economic reform to date, would certainly not have occurred in 1986 if no consensus were reached at the VI Party Congress.

A series of events in 2011 indicate that a vital consensus for the acceleration of economic reforms has been attained. Vietnam’s first major economic event for 2011 was the Communist Party Congress held in January, which set out Vietnam’s development strategy for the next 10 years. Like its predecessor, the 2011–2020 Strategy adopted at the Congress places great emphasis on rapid economic growth, with a target of 7–8 per cent average annual GDP growth over the next decade. The strategy puts increased attention on the quality of growth, including targets on macroeconomic stability and requirements for clarifying the role of the state in a market economy. Nevertheless, the ambitious quantitative growth target suggests a continuation rather than a fundamental break with previous strategies.

But events took a significant turn just a few weeks after the Congress. In late February the government issued Resolution 11, aiming to restore Vietnam’s macroeconomic stability and cool down an overheated economy. Specifically, the resolution sought to address high levels of inflation, tension in the foreign exchange market, high nominal interest rates and declining foreign exchange reserves. The implementation of Resolution 11 remained a top priority in the government’s agenda throughout 2011, and reviews of its implementation continue to take place regularly. Resolution 11 represents a decisive switch from growth to stability. For the first time, there is an official government policy document that completely neglects the term ‘growth’ in its targets. Its longevity signals a significant change in the mindset of Vietnam’s policy makers.

Signs of a radical shift in economic strategy became more evident when the new administration came into power in July. Several workshops and focus group discussions were held to facilitate policy dialogues regarding the restructuring of Vietnam’s economy to improve efficiency and competitiveness. From this process, consensus was reached on Vietnam’s strategic development priorities, identifying major areas for reform in the coming years. This consensus argues for radical transformation in three areas: state-owned enterprises (SOEs), the financial sector and public investment. The need for reform was also officially documented in the Socio-Economic Development Plan (SEDP) for the period 2011–2015, which was approved by the National Assembly in November.

Following these events, Vietnam recorded good economic growth in 2011, with an estimated rate of GDP growth at 5.8 per cent. Exports performed very well, increasing by 33 per cent despite a significant decline in global demand. This robust GDP and export growth prevailed over a significant contraction in fiscal and monetary policy, and Vietnam’s strong export performance contributed notably to the reduction of trade deficits and the foreign exchange market’s stabilisation. The rate of inflation also slowed in the last four months, largely due to the implementation of Resolution 11.

The adoption of Resolution 11 and the SEDP in particular indicate that Vietnam has achieved consensus on accelerating market-based reforms in ‘difficult’ reform areas, namely SOEs, the financial sector and public investment. The recent release of an ambitious proposal for SOE reform through to 2020, developed by the National Steering Committee for Enterprise Reform and Development, provides further evidence of this consensus. According to the proposal, about 44 per cent of the remaining 1300 full SOEs will be equitised in the next four years.

In this context, 2012 will be a very challenging year for Vietnam. The country still has to deal with an overheating economy, and inflationary pressures remain a genuine threat to the country’s economic stability. The banking sector is vulnerable, with a rising share of non-performing loans resulting from a long period of extraordinary credit growth. Challenges also lie in transforming the SEDP’s vision into specific actions. The plan calls for a fundamental restructuring of the economy, and while many agree on the vision of the reform, the formulation of a feasible action plan will take time, owing to the likelihood of resistance from economically strong interest groups.

The Vietnamese government is developing a detailed action plan for its ambitious restructuring strategy. It is expected that this plan will be approved by the end of the first quarter of 2012. The timeframe looks very ambitious as consensus for detailed actions still needs to be built. But there is a significant factor which may speed up the implementation process: while the market economy was an unfamiliar concept in previous times, it now receives strong support from the vast majority of Vietnamese people.

Dr Doan Hong Quang is a Senior Economist at the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit, World Bank, Vietnam. This is part of a special feature: 2011 in review and the year ahead.

1. Malaysia’s economic transformation
2. Managing the risk of inflation during economic recovery – the case of Vietnam
3. Vietnam sails through the crisis but needs reform to sustain the growth

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Vietnam: the beginning of another economic transformation?

Mumbai: Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor KC Chakrabarty on Friday said efforts were being made to explore ways to pay for oil imported from Iran, which has been subjected to international sanctions. Chakrabarty termed the issue as one arising purely out of international sanctions on Iran and not a financial one. “We are finding, something is happening,” he said when asked about the way ahead to pay Iran for the crude which the country imports. When asked about the recent visit by an Indian team to the Gulf nation for settling the issue, he said, “They have to find a way out. “It is very difficult. It is international diplomacy. It has nothing to do with finance,” Chakrabarty said, speaking on the sidelines of an event here this evening. “The problem is we are not able to route the transactions through some banks because of international sanctions,” he added. Iran is the country’s second largest supplier of crude after Saudi Arabia. Earlier, payments for crude were made through multi-lateral settlement mechanisms which stopped about a year ago due to UN-imposed sanctions. Later, a novel way of payment was worked out wherein the Iranian Central Bank opened rupee accounts with Indian commercial banks, but that also is reportedly in trouble. US President Barack Obama on December 31 signed into law measures that deny access to the US financial system to any foreign bank that conducts business with the central bank of Iran. A report earlier this week said Iran was exploring the idea of increasing imports from India to compensate for its export of oil.

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India trying to find ways to pay for Iran oil: RBI

Reuters Workers construct a new toll road in Jakarta, Indonesia. JAKARTA – While much of the world struggles with painful austerity measures to stem spreading debt problems, Indonesia needs to splurge a little more, even if that means inflating its debt load.

That was one of the contrarian messages from a presentation Tuesday by Fitch Ratings, the international debt rater that lifted Indonesia’s credit rating above junk for the first time in 14 years last month.  If it wants to accelerate growth, Southeast Asia’s largest economy has to get more aggressive about spending on its infrastructure, said Philip McNicholas, director of Fitch’s sovereign ratings for the Asia-Pacific region. “If its budget deficit does blow out, we would not necessarily view that as unfavorable,” as long as the spending was on things that could put Indonesia on a “high-growth path,” he said. Few countries have experienced the devastation that can come from too much dependence on debt and foreign capital in the way Indonesia did in the 1990s, when the Asian financial crisis sent the country’s economy reeling.

That experience, and the painful rebuilding, has made Indonesia more cautious than most for much of the last decade. Its public debt to gross domestic product ratio (more than 100% for many countries today) came down sharply from around 90% in 2000 to 25% today. As a result, the country has the opposite spending problem now – it spends too little, say some economists. While its growth rate, which has averaged more than 6% in recent years, is stretching its outdated roads, ports and power plants, year after year it fails to meet its spending targets for new infrastructure. In the meantime, its roads are getting more crowded and companies are complaining of costly delays at ports and airports.

The number of cars on Indonesia’s roads has jumped from around 15 per kilometer at the turn of the century to more than 40 today, Fitch said. Including two-wheelers, the number of vehicles has tripled to 150 per kilometer. It isn’t often that a cautious rating agency tells a country to stop worrying about debt, but Indonesia needs to live a little, said Mr. McNicholas. “It’s a pretty rare situation outside of the higher-rated countries,” he said.

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Fitch: Indonesia Has Spending Problem

The Philippine energy and natural resources department last week gave the thumbs down to the application of Sagittarius Mines Incorporated (SMI) for environmental clearance for its planned commercial production of copper and gold in the Tampakan, South Cotabato. The department of energy and natural resources (Denr) cited the ordinance of South Cotabato which banned open pit mining  in the province as the basis for rejecting the application. “We are returning herewith the application documents with instruction to deny the same without prejudice to resubmit until the issues and concern on the use of open-pit mining method shall have been clarified and resolved by the company[SMI] with the provincial government of South Cotabato,” Denr secretary Ramon Paje said in a memorandum dated last January 3, copies of which were obtained by the local Catholic Diocese in South Cotabato. Juan Miguel T. Cuna, director of the Environmental Management Bureau, then ordered Sagittarius Mines “to refrain from undertaking any development activity in the areas mentioned in the application for ECC” until it will be able to obtain the necessary permit. The order was dated January 9 this year, several days after Paye issued his memorandum denying SMI’s ECC application. The ECC is a mandatory requirement before any mining project could proceed. To appeal SMI president Peter Forrestal said they were disappointed by the Denr decision but said they will seek reconsideration. “SMI intends immediately to file an appeal for a reconsideration of the decision as permitted under the ECC application process,” he said even as he claimed the decision “was not made on the merits of our Mine Project Environmental Impact Statement (EIS), which fully complies with the requirements of the DENR’s own ECC process and is backed by a world-class environmental impact assessment study.” SMI’s minority partner Indophil Resources, which only in December said it was confident the company will get an ECC, also confirmed the ECC rejection in a disclosure to the Australian bourse. SMI held several public scopings and at least five public hearings during the last two years in a bid to obtain an ECC.  These hearings drew partisan reactions from both pro-mining and anti-mining groups The Bishop Dinualdo Gutierrez of the Diocese of Marbel hailed the decision, however. Gutierrez, along with two other bishops in the areas where SMI planned to operate, is a strong advocate against open pit mining. The militant Bagong Alyansang Makabayan (New Patriotic Alliance) said the rejection was a triumph for the people who opposed and rejected SMI’s bid to mine 2.4 billion tonnes at a grade of 0.6 percent copper and 0.2 grams per tonne gold and contains 13.5 million tonnes of copper and 15.8 million ounces of gold, using a 0.3 percent copper cut-off grade. SMI earlier announced it intended to pour in US$5.4 billion in capital and cash investments for the project. National mining policy Forrestal said the Denr decision “sets a precedent that contradicts the publicly stated views of the Aquino Administration.” The Aquino government however said it is yet to come up with a comprehensive policy recommendation on the mining industry following increased environmental concerns from several sectors. Meanwhile, the Chamber of Mines in the Philippines today said “the denial of the application for an Environment Compliance Certificate (ECC) for the Tampakan Mine Project underscores the urgent need for a national mining policy that would resolve conflicts between the national government and local government units as regards minerals development.” The Philippine mines chamber also warned that the denial of SMI’s ECC application may send mixed signals to the investment community.” The Denr decision came just days after a local trial court restrained the provincial government of Zamboanga del Norte from enforcing its own open pit mine ban which affected the ongoing operations of Canadian-owned TVI Resources Development. SMI however has refused to challenge the provincial ordinance saying that it was just a contractor under the Colombio Financial Technical Assistance Agreement which holds the Tampakan Copper and Gold Project. Aside from the Catholic Church and environment groups, the communist-led New People’s Army is also against mining large-scale mining operations. In October last year, some 200 NPA guerillas raided Taganito Mines and two other sister companies in Surigao del Norte torching over US$20 billion of equipment and properties.

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Philippines govt rejects SMI mining bid