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From WSJ’s Davos blog:

Standard Chartered PLC remains bullish on the major Asian economies of India and China, encouraged by the policy outlook for the two countries this year, the bank’s Asia chief executive said.

The U.K.-based lender, which focuses almost exclusively on Asia and emerging economies, also sees European rivals retreating from those markets as they are beset with challenges at home, Standard Chartered Asia Chief Executive Jaspal Bindra said in an interview on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum.

In India last year, Standard Chartered confronted a range of challenges including slowing growth, rising interest rates and a depreciating rupee. Revenue from the bank’s India unit fell by 12% in the first half of 2011 and by the “mid-teens” in the third quarter, Group Finance Director Richard Meddings said earlier.

Mr. Bindra blamed higher interest rates. “Interest rates went up almost 400 basis points in a short period, and it is very difficult, if you do wholesale business with the best clients in the country, to pass on a 400 basis point increase at any one time.”

But the central bank’s surprise move to loosen monetary policy this week has sent a “clear signal” that there will be no further rate hikes and the government is shifting its focus to promoting growth, Mr. Bindra said.

The Reserve Bank of India Tuesday held its key lending rate steady for a second straight policy meeting but cut the minimum cash reserve requirement by 0.50 percentage point to ease liquidity.

“The government has for a long time shown a huge preference to manage inflation through monetary policy,” he said. But following the RBI cut, “I think we will see a more balanced approach.”

Mr. Bindra also said that the recent “normalization” of the rupee exchange rate — it is up 6% against the dollar so far this year after declining 15.1% in 2011 — will encourage renewed foreign investment.

In China, Mr. Bindra believes authorities will be successful in guiding the economy to a “soft landing” ahead of a leadership transition at the end of the year.

“The priority for all of 2012 and beyond is going to be ‘how do we keep things stable,’ as they have this transition of power at the top,” he said, adding that not just the top political leadership, but also the leaders of major financial institutions and regulators are all due to be reshuffled. “It is quite a massive-scale change of power.”

As European banks regroup and retreat from Asia, Standard Chartered sees an opening. The trend is especially pronounced in industries including shipping and commodities and in markets like Indonesia and India where dollar liquidity is scarce, he said.

“It gives us an opportunity to scale up market share, and second, it gives us a little bit of pricing advantage.”

– Aaron Back. Follow him on Twitter @AaronBack.

In recent years, China has re-invigorated its support for leading state-owned enterprises in sectors it considers important to “economic security,” explicitly looking to foster globally competitive national champions.

In 2009, China announced that by 2020 it would reduce carbon intensity 40% from 2005 levels.

The government has also focused on foreign trade as a major vehicle for economic growth.

The restructuring of the economy and resulting efficiency gains have contributed to a more than tenfold increase in GDP since 1978.

The disparities between the two sectors have combined to form an economic-cultural-social gap between the rural and urban areas, which is a major division in Chinese society.

The technological level and quality standards of its industry as a whole are still fairly low, notwithstanding a marked change since 2000, spurred in part by foreign investment.

China’s increasing integration with the international economy and its growing efforts to use market forces to govern the domestic allocation of goods have exacerbated this problem.

The growth in both outbound investment from, and inbound investment to, China reflects the nation’s rising economic power and attractiveness as an investment destination.

” Although the figure is already “quite amazing,” the volume is “not large enough” considering China’s economic growth and local companies’ expanding demand for international opportunities, Shen said.

It also aims to sell more than 15 million of the most fuel-efficient vehicles in the world each year by then.

Although China is still a developing country with a relatively low per capita income, it has experienced tremendous economic growth since the late 1970s.

Since the late 1970s, China has decollectivized agriculture, yielding tremendous gains in production.

China is the world’s largest producer of rice and wheat and a major producer of sweet potatoes, sorghum, millet, barley, peanuts, corn, soybeans, and potatoes.

China ranks first in world production of red meat (including beef, veal, mutton, lamb, and pork).

Growing domestic demand beginning in the mid-1990s, however, has forced the nation to import increasing quantities of petroleum.

China’s leading export minerals are tungsten, antimony, tin, magnesium, molybdenum, mercury, manganese, barite, and salt.

Major industrial products are textiles, chemicals, fertilizers, machinery (especially for agriculture), processed foods, iron and steel, building materials, plastics, toys, and electronics.

Brick, tile, cement, and food-processing plants are found in almost every province.

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Davos: StanChart Bullish on China, India

A top U.S. lawmaker is applauding political reforms in Burma, but says more change is needed.  Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell recently returned from a trip to Burma, where he met with democracy leader and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and President Thein Sein.

The Senate’s top Republican took to the chamber floor to deliver a hopeful and cautiously-optimistic message on Burma, which he described as having been one of the world’s “most isolated and oppressed” nations.

“Many of us wondered if things would ever change in Burma.  After my recent visit, I am pleased to say that change is clearly in the air,” said McConnell.  “It appears Burma has made some progress towards democracy in the past six months, made more than it has in decades.  I can tell you this is welcome news.”

Mitch McConnell is a lead author of annual bills imposing sanctions on Burma.  He praised the country’s transition toward civilian rule and the freeing of political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, who spent much of the past two decades under house arrest.  The two met last week in Rangoon.

“By her courage and her patience, that justice delayed would not be justice denied, Aung San Suu Kyi has kept the hope of freedom in her country alive,” added McConnell.  “Never did I think I would get to meet the Nobel laureate in person.  And, Mr. President, it was quite a moment.”

McConnell said Burma’s government has taken “undeniably positive steps towards reform,” and endorsed the exchange of ambassadors between Washington and Rangoon, but he said more must be done.

“The government of Burma still has a substantial way to go to achieve real and lasting reform,” said McConnell.  “I do not support, and I do not think the [Obama] administration would support lifting the [U.S.] sanctions that have been imposed unless there is much further progress.”

McConnell listed upcoming parliamentary elections as an important test of that progress, and urged a full reconciliation between Burma’s government and the country’s ethnic minorities.  He also demanded full disclosure of Burma’s dealings with North Korea.

In a recent interview with the Washington Post newspaper, Burma’s president argued his country has complied with Western demands, adding he would like to see U.S. sanctions eased and eventually dropped.

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US Lawmaker Notes Progress in Burma

The prime minister is attending the World Economic Forum in Switzerland and meeting with leading business people to clarify Thailand’s flood recovery plan. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is in Davos, Switzerland today to take part in the 42nd World Economic Forum. She’s scheduled to take part in a round-table luncheon with leaders and leading business people to discuss sustainable economic growth.

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PM to Meet Leading Businesspeople at World Econ Forum

A severe drought and a decline in rice prices in early 2010 do not bode well for agricultural production and consumption, although increased employment in manufacturing will partly offset the impact to agriculture.
All in all, a more favorable external environment should help boost real GDP growth to 6.2 percent in 2010. After this year, slower growth in developed countries, emerging capacity constraints as capacity idled during the crisis is quickly put to use, and the weight of the ongoing political turmoil on new investment, should likely keep growth below Thailand’s historical average of 5.1 percent. On the whole, Thailand’s fiscal and financial picture remains solid

The relative strength and power of sovereign wealth funds is massively increasing, and the money has to go somewhere.
But another factor is likely the presence of larger, institutional investors in large-cap stocks who are more concerned about long-term performance than short-term market movements.

In 1972 the Government took a further step in this direction by amending the “Announcement of the Executive Council No. 58 on the Control of Commercial Undertakings Affecting Public Safety and Welfare”. The changes extended Government control and regulation over the operations of finance and securities companies, which until then had operated fairly freely. Following these amendments, in May 1974, long-awaited legislation establishing “The Securities Exchange of Thailand” (SET) was enacted. This was followed by revisions to the Revenue Code at the end of the year, allowing the investment of savings in the capital market. By 1975 the basic legislative framework was in place and on April 30, 1975, “The Securities Exchange of Thailand” officially started trading. On January 1, 1991 its name was formally changed to “The Stock Exchange of Thailand” (SET).

The release of more than 200 political prisoners on January 13 and the subsequent decision by Washington to announce its readiness to send an ambassador to Burma are the latest steps taken by both governments to normalize relations.

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Author: Doan Hong Quang, World Bank

Consensus-based policy making is a salient feature of Vietnam, where important decisions are collectively made.

Consensus is needed not only for the formulation of a reform vision but also for the elaboration and implementation of this vision. Doi Moi, the most successful economic reform to date, would certainly not have occurred in 1986 if no consensus were reached at the VI Party Congress.

A series of events in 2011 indicate that a vital consensus for the acceleration of economic reforms has been attained. Vietnam’s first major economic event for 2011 was the Communist Party Congress held in January, which set out Vietnam’s development strategy for the next 10 years. Like its predecessor, the 2011–2020 Strategy adopted at the Congress places great emphasis on rapid economic growth, with a target of 7–8 per cent average annual GDP growth over the next decade. The strategy puts increased attention on the quality of growth, including targets on macroeconomic stability and requirements for clarifying the role of the state in a market economy. Nevertheless, the ambitious quantitative growth target suggests a continuation rather than a fundamental break with previous strategies.

But events took a significant turn just a few weeks after the Congress. In late February the government issued Resolution 11, aiming to restore Vietnam’s macroeconomic stability and cool down an overheated economy. Specifically, the resolution sought to address high levels of inflation, tension in the foreign exchange market, high nominal interest rates and declining foreign exchange reserves. The implementation of Resolution 11 remained a top priority in the government’s agenda throughout 2011, and reviews of its implementation continue to take place regularly. Resolution 11 represents a decisive switch from growth to stability. For the first time, there is an official government policy document that completely neglects the term ‘growth’ in its targets. Its longevity signals a significant change in the mindset of Vietnam’s policy makers.

Signs of a radical shift in economic strategy became more evident when the new administration came into power in July. Several workshops and focus group discussions were held to facilitate policy dialogues regarding the restructuring of Vietnam’s economy to improve efficiency and competitiveness. From this process, consensus was reached on Vietnam’s strategic development priorities, identifying major areas for reform in the coming years. This consensus argues for radical transformation in three areas: state-owned enterprises (SOEs), the financial sector and public investment. The need for reform was also officially documented in the Socio-Economic Development Plan (SEDP) for the period 2011–2015, which was approved by the National Assembly in November.

Following these events, Vietnam recorded good economic growth in 2011, with an estimated rate of GDP growth at 5.8 per cent. Exports performed very well, increasing by 33 per cent despite a significant decline in global demand. This robust GDP and export growth prevailed over a significant contraction in fiscal and monetary policy, and Vietnam’s strong export performance contributed notably to the reduction of trade deficits and the foreign exchange market’s stabilisation. The rate of inflation also slowed in the last four months, largely due to the implementation of Resolution 11.

The adoption of Resolution 11 and the SEDP in particular indicate that Vietnam has achieved consensus on accelerating market-based reforms in ‘difficult’ reform areas, namely SOEs, the financial sector and public investment. The recent release of an ambitious proposal for SOE reform through to 2020, developed by the National Steering Committee for Enterprise Reform and Development, provides further evidence of this consensus. According to the proposal, about 44 per cent of the remaining 1300 full SOEs will be equitised in the next four years.

In this context, 2012 will be a very challenging year for Vietnam. The country still has to deal with an overheating economy, and inflationary pressures remain a genuine threat to the country’s economic stability. The banking sector is vulnerable, with a rising share of non-performing loans resulting from a long period of extraordinary credit growth. Challenges also lie in transforming the SEDP’s vision into specific actions. The plan calls for a fundamental restructuring of the economy, and while many agree on the vision of the reform, the formulation of a feasible action plan will take time, owing to the likelihood of resistance from economically strong interest groups.

The Vietnamese government is developing a detailed action plan for its ambitious restructuring strategy. It is expected that this plan will be approved by the end of the first quarter of 2012. The timeframe looks very ambitious as consensus for detailed actions still needs to be built. But there is a significant factor which may speed up the implementation process: while the market economy was an unfamiliar concept in previous times, it now receives strong support from the vast majority of Vietnamese people.

Dr Doan Hong Quang is a Senior Economist at the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit, World Bank, Vietnam. This is part of a special feature: 2011 in review and the year ahead.

1. Malaysia’s economic transformation
2. Managing the risk of inflation during economic recovery – the case of Vietnam
3. Vietnam sails through the crisis but needs reform to sustain the growth

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Vietnam: the beginning of another economic transformation?

In response to the federal government’s largest anti-piracy crackdown and subsequent arrests of seven Megaupload. com leaders, “hacktivist” group Anonymous said on Thursday that it had taken down a number of websites, including those of the US Department of Justice (DoJ), the FBI, the Recording Industry of America, Universal Music, Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA), and BMI.

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Many activities have been planned in Bangkok and other major provinces in celebration of the upcoming Chinese New Year and to welcome the Year of the Dragon.This years Chinese New Year’s Day falls on January 23.

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Thailand plans Big Celebration for Chinese Year of the Dragon

The output of other sectors was also affected during the recent crisis, although less markedly because they had been growing slower than the sectors linked to external demand.
Policies that could contribute to reducing Thailand’s dependence on foreign demand include a phased liberalization of the services sector, boosting transport infrastructure, a reform of educational curricula and improved access and quality of higher education to boost skills of the labor force, better integration of universities, firms and government, and improved social safety nets

Pathom Yongvanich, a founding partner of PYI, says Asian markets have not only benefited from the inflow of international capital, but also from the growing sophistication of Asian investors themselves.
Mr Pathom noted that past a certain level of market capitalization, investors appear to take a different view on valuations.

With implications both local and global, minimum wages and prices are on the rise in Guandong province, a region that’s been at the center of China’s manufacturing and economic rise. Government goals include moving beyond the low-end manufacturing that has long characterized Chinese industry and dealing with mounting inflation while keeping unemployment low. But these might be contradictory goals. Chinese small-business and factory owners are protesting the mandatory wage increase, which increases their expenses at a time when other costs are also on the rise. Companies are looking to poorer countries for labor, but the scale of the labor force in neighboring nations offer no quick alternative to China’s. The wage hikes signal the end to a large, inexpensive labor force at the world’s beck and call – as well as affordable Chinese-made products. – YaleGlobal Higher wages, combined with China’s goals to move beyond low-end manufacturing, signal an end to low-cost goods for the global consumers Kathleen E. McLaughlin GlobalPost, 16 January 2012 Rights:Copyright 2011 GlobalPost – International News

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Bye-bye Cheap, Chinese Labor