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China’s real estate scene is reminiscent of the 2007 US market: developers are slashing prices and infuriating owners who paid top yuan for properties. Problems in the real estate market are extending into steel, banking, mining and other sectors. Vacant developments are numerous because wealthy Chinese savers have few alternatives for investing growing wealth. “Beijing’s response to the global financial crisis added jet fuel to the fire,” writes Patrick Chovanec for Foreign Affairs, arguing that investors, not urban residents contributed to the bubble. “To maintain GDP growth of nearly ten percent during a massive downturn in global demand, China’s leaders engineered a lending boom that expanded the country’s money supply by roughly two-thirds.” Developers, after ignoring warnings to ease up on capacity, have urged the government to lift restrictions on owning multiple homes. By letting the bubble pop, the government could instantly create affordable housing for less affluent Chinese. – YaleGlobal Speculation, excess inventory, vacant developments, price reductions – a host of factors are set to undermine China’s real estate market and economic growth Patrick Chovanec Foreign Affairs, 26 December 2011 Rights:Copyright © 2002-2011 by the Council on Foreign Relations, Inc.

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China’s Real Estate Bubble May Have Just Popped

Thailand Business News –

The Thanachart Bank Thailand Property Awards were first held in 2006. Now in their sixth year, the awards aim to promote, reward and showcase the best in Thailand’s real estate industry.

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Winners of Thailand Property Awards 2011 Announced

While focusing on different products, detached houses and townhomes in greater Bangkok, the company spent much of last year improving its key financial ratios.

Several factors have contributed to the strong and rapid rebound.

The mid to high-end segment boomed this year in Thailand as demand was wide and remained strong. The high-end will recover in the third or fourth quarter. But supply in this segment is very limited due to scarcity of land for new developments. Around 80% of the new launch in this segment was taken up. New supply in the high-end segment, now quoted at 150,000 to 200,000 baht a square metre, will be provided by developers with a strong financial status, experienced teams and products that match demand.
Currently, the MahaNakhon project is the only new high-end project in the pipeline. The Sukhothai Residence project on Sathorn Road, which is 70% sold, has frozen sales until demand can sustain the desired prices.

Thailand Business News –

This year’s floods have had a vast impact on the property market, with sectors affected across the board. But the impact varies from sector to sector,from residential to industrial.

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Floods Won’t Affect Thai Property Market in the Long Term
Thailand’s property sector is showing signs of an early recovery, as selective investors return to purchasing real estate stocks and actual property.

Some of the credit goes to a one-year government stimulus package that reduces the Special Business Tax from 3.3% to 0.11%, extends the reduction on transfer taxes from 2% to 0.01% and mortgage registration fees and provides a tax deduction on mortgage principal and interest.
Thailand’s property indicators show:

1.The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index began rebounding in April 2009, and property stocks – while the first to fall in H2/08 – were amongst the first to recover
2. The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has lowered its policy interest rate four times since December 2008, prompting banks to reduce the minimum lending rate (MLR) from 7.25% to 6.25%
3. A continued drop in sales of durable goods due to uncertainty surrounding the economy is highlighted consumer confidence index (CCI) to a historic low of 72.8 in Q1/09 and New housing registrations in Bangkok and surrounding areas fell 43.8% in Q1/09

Recognising that sales would slow, forward-thinking companies took the opportunity to focus on their fundamentals and improve their balance sheets. This was the strategy of Hubert Viriot, CEO of the luxury developer Raimon Land, who was appointed in the midst of the crisis.

Second, Thailand’s banking system is much healthier than its Western counterparts. There are no toxic assets on local banks’ balance sheets. This benefits both the supply and demand side.

But a stable political environment in Thailand would likely see interest rates rise by half a percentage point. And oil prices will float at about US$85 to $95 a barrel. Construction costs will rise when oil prices and interest rates are in an upward trend. Overall housing supply has dropped over the past two years with a decrease in the number of construction permits. Many small-sized developers went bust after failing to access loans from local financial institutions.

Thailand Business News –

AIA Group (“AIA” or “the Group”) today announced that it is investing THB10.5 billion in Thailand through two large-scale real estate projects, underscoring its long term commitment to the country.

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AIA Group Announces THB10.5 billion Property Investments in Bangkok

Recognising that sales would slow, forward-thinking companies took the opportunity to focus on their fundamentals and improve their balance sheets. This was the strategy of Hubert Viriot, CEO of the luxury developer Raimon Land, who was appointed in the midst of the crisis.

Like Raimon Land, Prinsiri did not lower its prices : it was not all bad news, however, as the recovery soon took hold in the second half and by the fourth quarter GDP posted 5.8% growth and many developers reached their annual sales targets.

But if the government invests in mass transit routes, adding one or two new lines in the future, new residential and commercial areas will be created. Property tax incentives implemented by the government of Thailand to stimulate the sluggish market expired on May 30 as it was no longer a need for the tax breaks as the economy was recovering, the property sector had grown by 10% over the past year, and developers’ margins were improving. Governments have used tax incentives to stimulate the property market during most economic slumps since the 1997 Asian financial crisis.

Thailand Business News – Growth in the CBRE Asia Pacific Logistics Rental Index accelerated to 2.0% q-o-q in the third quarter compared to 1.4% q-o-q in the second quarter. This was largely due to the strong performance of key Greater China markets, where retailers competed to secure quality logistics space in prime areas in anticipation of peak retail consumption during the Lunar New Year in January. Logistics rents in the Pacific held firm, although some markets recorded significant fluctuations.

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China and India drive Logistics Rental Growth in Asia Pacific
Thailand’s property sector is showing signs of an early recovery, as selective investors return to purchasing real estate stocks and actual property.

Some of the credit goes to a one-year government stimulus package that reduces the Special Business Tax from 3.3% to 0.11%, extends the reduction on transfer taxes from 2% to 0.01% and mortgage registration fees and provides a tax deduction on mortgage principal and interest.
Thailand’s property indicators show:

1.The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index began rebounding in April 2009, and property stocks – while the first to fall in H2/08 – were amongst the first to recover
2. The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has lowered its policy interest rate four times since December 2008, prompting banks to reduce the minimum lending rate (MLR) from 7.25% to 6.25%
3. A continued drop in sales of durable goods due to uncertainty surrounding the economy is highlighted consumer confidence index (CCI) to a historic low of 72.8 in Q1/09 and New housing registrations in Bangkok and surrounding areas fell 43.8% in Q1/09

Thai property developers, despite being some of the first local companies to get hit by the global financial crisis, have shown resilience and delivered strong results for investors.

These cultural changes are evidenced in the type of housing recently launched. On the lower- to mid-end side, Supalai and LPN have launched projects in Ratchayothin and Ratchada with units ranging from 28 to 55 square meters and prices from 1.5-3 million baht, reflecting demand among single professionals and young families. On the higher end side, where prices are at or above 100,000 baht per sq m, the Sukhumvit and CBD areas remain the preferred location. The common point between all this? Easy access to BTS and MRT lines.

The tax breaks was initially introduced on March 2008, when the special business tax was reduced from 3% to 0.1%, and the transfer and mortgage fees cut from 2% and 1% respectively to 0.01%. These incentives were due to end on December 2, 2008, but have effectively been extended until the current May 30 deadline.

Thailand Business News – Thailand Business News

New launches for Q3 2011 were dramatically down compared with the previous quarter by around 74%. Approximately 3,000 units were launched in Q3 compared to around 11,600 in Q2 2011 and was the lowest number recorded in the past three years. Share this Article

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Short term uncertainties cause 74% drop in condominium launches

Prinsiri took a similar approach.

Second, Thailand’s banking system is much healthier than its Western counterparts. There are no toxic assets on local banks’ balance sheets. This benefits both the supply and demand side.

The mid to high-end segment boomed this year in Thailand as demand was wide and remained strong. The high-end will recover in the third or fourth quarter. But supply in this segment is very limited due to scarcity of land for new developments. Around 80% of the new launch in this segment was taken up. New supply in the high-end segment, now quoted at 150,000 to 200,000 baht a square metre, will be provided by developers with a strong financial status, experienced teams and products that match demand.
Currently, the MahaNakhon project is the only new high-end project in the pipeline. The Sukhothai Residence project on Sathorn Road, which is 70% sold, has frozen sales until demand can sustain the desired prices.

Thailand Business News – Thailand Business News

The Sofitel Silom hotel was sold to an associate of The Pioneer Global Group. The same associate, with a 49.5% stake in the Pullman Pattaya Aisawan Resort, purchased the 469-room hotel for 2.01 billion baht, or 4.3 million baht per key. Share this Article

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Demand for Thailand Top Locations Remains
Thailand’s property sector is showing signs of an early recovery, as selective investors return to purchasing real estate stocks and actual property.

Some of the credit goes to a one-year government stimulus package that reduces the Special Business Tax from 3.3% to 0.11%, extends the reduction on transfer taxes from 2% to 0.01% and mortgage registration fees and provides a tax deduction on mortgage principal and interest.
Thailand’s property indicators show:

1.The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index began rebounding in April 2009, and property stocks – while the first to fall in H2/08 – were amongst the first to recover
2. The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has lowered its policy interest rate four times since December 2008, prompting banks to reduce the minimum lending rate (MLR) from 7.25% to 6.25%
3. A continued drop in sales of durable goods due to uncertainty surrounding the economy is highlighted consumer confidence index (CCI) to a historic low of 72.8 in Q1/09 and New housing registrations in Bangkok and surrounding areas fell 43.8% in Q1/09

Thai property developers, despite being some of the first local companies to get hit by the global financial crisis, have shown resilience and delivered strong results for investors.

The market is based on people who will actually live in the units and less on speculators.

But a stable political environment in Thailand would likely see interest rates rise by half a percentage point. And oil prices will float at about US$85 to $95 a barrel. Construction costs will rise when oil prices and interest rates are in an upward trend. Overall housing supply has dropped over the past two years with a decrease in the number of construction permits. Many small-sized developers went bust after failing to access loans from local financial institutions.

Thailand Business News – Thailand Business News

In the past two years Bangkok has seen several leasehold condominium projects launched, including the Residences at the St Regis Bangkok, the Ritz-Carlton Residences, Bangkok, and the Oriental Residence. While buyers’ preferences have traditionally been for freehold property, these top-end leasehold projects are seeing a significant increase in demand. Share this Article

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Demand for Bangkok Leasehold Condominiums on the Rise

The SET index bottomed at 432 in December 2008 after tumbling from a high of 833 earlier that year. The index then levelled off in Q1/09, before working its way back to 560 in May. Triggered by positive pre-sale signs from developers, a reduction in construction costs and the government’s stimulus package, property stocks were among the first to bounce back. The SET’s revival reached a mark just 32% below its peak, in line with other world stock markets including the Dow Jones (-33%), Singapore Straits Times (-27%), the Hang Seng (-25%) and the FTSE (-27%).

The Bank of Thailand Monetary Policy Committee stopped cutting its key rate in May 2009 after seeing signals of a recovering economy. Many expect banks to adjust their rates down once rising confidence supports housing purchases, and promotion campaign launches to grasp home buyers.

As a result of declining consumer confidence during four consecutive quarters there has been a dramatic drop in sales of big ticket items such as vehicles (-33%). Bangkok housing registrations for single houses and townhouse units have also been hit hard, while investments and new mass transit lines have boosted market share for condominiums in the residential property sector, although the market demand as a whole has been lower. Transactions will most likely remain slow until confidence returns to both buyers and bankers, who finance property developers and their customers.

Prinsiri took a similar approach.

Like Raimon Land, Prinsiri did not lower its prices : it was not all bad news, however, as the recovery soon took hold in the second half and by the fourth quarter GDP posted 5.8% growth and many developers reached their annual sales targets.

Developers are confident in the property market’s long-term potential, which will improve in line with Thailand’s economic growth, despite political turmoil on the streets of Bangkok.
Property firms in Thailand saw their performances improve in the first quarter compared to the same period last year, largely thanks to tax breaks for home-buyer. The property market has improved since the third quarter last year with sales picking up. Based on a wide range of forecasts, the Thai economy is expected to grow by 4% this year, but political uncertainty will reduce purchasing power and local and foreign investment in Thailand.