Siam News Network

Many activities have been planned in Bangkok and other major provinces in celebration of the upcoming Chinese New Year and to welcome the Year of the Dragon.This years Chinese New Year’s Day falls on January 23.

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Thailand plans Big Celebration for Chinese Year of the Dragon

The output of other sectors was also affected during the recent crisis, although less markedly because they had been growing slower than the sectors linked to external demand.
Policies that could contribute to reducing Thailand’s dependence on foreign demand include a phased liberalization of the services sector, boosting transport infrastructure, a reform of educational curricula and improved access and quality of higher education to boost skills of the labor force, better integration of universities, firms and government, and improved social safety nets

Pathom Yongvanich, a founding partner of PYI, says Asian markets have not only benefited from the inflow of international capital, but also from the growing sophistication of Asian investors themselves.
Mr Pathom noted that past a certain level of market capitalization, investors appear to take a different view on valuations.

Thai police led Atris Hussein, a 48 year-old Lebanese man with suspected links to a Hezbollah to search a commercial building in Samut Sakhon province, adjacent to the capital, where they discovered chemical substances which could be used in making explosives.

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Terrorism in Thailand: the Swedish connection

On the demand side, the importance of external demand can be fully appreciated by recognizing that the bulk of inventories in Thailand are primarily inputs and finished goods for the export-oriented manufacturing. In the fourth quarter of 2009, for example, net exports and the change in inventories contributed 44 percent of the quarterly growth.
The continuation of certain government policies, especially the pension to the elderly and free education should also support higher consumption levels for the poor. The longer-term goal of reducing reliance on external demand will take time, especially given political uncertainties that hinder the government’s ability to implement not only its investment program but also needed structural reforms.

Chinese investment funds, Middle Eastern petrodollars — there is a huge amount of new money being channeled into the Asian capital markets.
The 2009 market rally reflects the perception that valuations are about long-term potential, and that political crises in Thailand rarely have a dramatic impact on the fundamentals of the economy. If we look at the EV/EBITDA multiples of the oil and gas sector, for example, valuations are still low compared to regional peers : this is partly a reflection of regulatory risks and political instability in Thailand.

The Mekong, one of the world’s major rivers, starting in Tibet and flowing through south China, Burma, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam, provides sustenance through irrigation and fishing to those living in its basin. But it also provides hydroelectric power through dams, three of which were built in China and with more planned.

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China Power Dams on The Mekong are setting off alarm bells

On the demand side, the importance of external demand can be fully appreciated by recognizing that the bulk of inventories in Thailand are primarily inputs and finished goods for the export-oriented manufacturing. In the fourth quarter of 2009, for example, net exports and the change in inventories contributed 44 percent of the quarterly growth.
However, the upside is limited due to political and regulatory uncertainty, including from possible political violence and the Map Ta Phut court case. The government investment plan is proceeding at a slow pace, but public investment should contribute to growth.

With economic pundits forecasting that Asian economies will lead global growth over the next few years, led by emerging giants China and India, it seems logical that investors will shift their funds to Thai and Asian equity markets in search of higher yields.
The result is that analysts have little incentive to track a stock, further lowering its visibility.

Ayutthaya’s historical sites have been heavily affected by recent flooding in Thailand. Thailand’s Ministry of Culture initially sought the budget of Bt1.4 billion baht (about US$46 million ) from the cabinet to restore Ayutthaya’s historical sites.

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US$46 million budget to restore Ayutthaya historical sites

A severe drought and a decline in rice prices in early 2010 do not bode well for agricultural production and consumption, although increased employment in manufacturing will partly offset the impact to agriculture.
However, the upside is limited due to political and regulatory uncertainty, including from possible political violence and the Map Ta Phut court case. The government investment plan is proceeding at a slow pace, but public investment should contribute to growth.

‘‘The bigger Thai companies going on international road shows still stop in the US, Europe, Hong Kong and Singapore. But a few are also beginning to go to China and the Middle East as well,’’ Mr Wood said.
‘‘Institutional investors want to have the ability to get in or out of a stock without significantly influencing the share price.

The Government will organize various celebration activities to offer felicitations to His Majesty the King on the occasion of his 7th cycle, or 84th, birthday anniversary.

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Thailand celebrates His Majesty the King 84th Birthday

Real GDP fell 6.3 percent between the third quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, as global demand slumped, before rebounding 6.9 percent through the end of 2009. The rebound was due to a recovery in global demand, an end to inventory liquidation and a pickup in private consumption as confidence returned.
While the Thai government is aware of the need for these reforms, political uncertainties have made it more challenging to pursue them

‘‘The bigger Thai companies going on international road shows still stop in the US, Europe, Hong Kong and Singapore. But a few are also beginning to go to China and the Middle East as well,’’ Mr Wood said.
In part, this may reflect the greater volatility in earnings in smaller companies.

Thailand’s ICT Ministry told Facebook to block more accounts with suspected lèse majesté contents: 26,000 URL in Aug-Sept and 60,000 URL in Oct-[Nov]. Local Facebook users risk violating the computer law unknowingly by pressing the “like” or “share” button included with posted comment on anti-monarchy messages on Facebook, Thailand’s Information and Communication Technology Minister Anudith Nakornthap said.

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Thailand asks Facebook to block 60,000 accounts on lese majesté charges

Sectors linked to external demand (namely, manufacturing, hotels and transport) have been the main contributors to growth since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, and have also determined the dynamics of the economy in 2008-09. These sectors have accounted for almost all of the annual changes in real GDP.
While the Thai government is aware of the need for these reforms, political uncertainties have made it more challenging to pursue them

Chinese investment funds, Middle Eastern petrodollars — there is a huge amount of new money being channeled into the Asian capital markets.
Mr Pathom noted that past a certain level of market capitalization, investors appear to take a different view on valuations.

Thailand’s historic central province of Ayutthaya, one of the worst affected by the recent floods, on 21 November 2011 held a “Big Cleaning Day” for the Bang Pa-In Industrial Estate after floodwaters were drained. According to Ayutthaya Governor Wittaya Phewpong, the clean-up will help rehabilitate the estate and restore foreign investor confidence.

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Clean-Up and Rehabilitation Plan Start in the Ayutthaya Industrial Estates

Thailand’s open and tightly integrated into global trade economy experienced a V-shape contraction and recovery from late 2008 through late 2009
Government consumption will likely contract due to the phase-out of consumption measures of the first fiscal stimulus package. Investment is expected to recover, as capacity utilization rises and deferred maintenance, machine replacements and limited expansion of existing plants take place. In addition, there are indications that construction investment, long subdued, may be picking up.

With economic pundits forecasting that Asian economies will lead global growth over the next few years, led by emerging giants China and India, it seems logical that investors will shift their funds to Thai and Asian equity markets in search of higher yields.
But while Thai bosses may feel powerless to change market perceptions about political risk, plenty can be done to at least separate one’s company from the herd. Too many Thai companies have free floats and trading liquidity that are too constrained to attract institutional investors.

Leading Japanese automakers on Monday announced the partial resumption of production in Thailand after being forced to halt operations for over a month due to the country’s worst flooding in decades, which disrupted their parts supply.

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Japanese automakers resume partial production in Thailand

For 2009 as a whole, nonetheless, real GDP fell 2.3 percent despite a pick-up in consumption in the fourth quarter, external demand will be the main contributor to growth in the near term.
The continuation of certain government policies, especially the pension to the elderly and free education should also support higher consumption levels for the poor. The longer-term goal of reducing reliance on external demand will take time, especially given political uncertainties that hinder the government’s ability to implement not only its investment program but also needed structural reforms.

Lagging the chart was paper and printing materials, with a -1.3% TSR for 2009, professional services with a meager 4.5% gain, and property funds up 31%.The Shareholder Scorecard, published annually by the Bangkok Post and the AWR Lloyd-PYI group, is an analysis of the two factors that underlie investor returns — dividends and capital gains.
In part, this may reflect the greater volatility in earnings in smaller companies.