AMRO maintains ASEAN+3 growth forecasts at 4.4% and 4.3% for 2024-25, driven by exports, domestic demand, tourism recovery. Risks include U.S. factors, geopolitical tensions. Policy measures needed for resilience.
Key Takeaways
The ASEAN+3 region’s growth forecast for 2024-25 remains at 4.4 percent and 4.3 percent, supported by favorable export prospects, robust domestic demand, and a recovering tourism sector. Inflation in the region is expected to moderate to 2.1 percent in 2024, with risks related to geopolitical tensions and U.S. factors. The outcome of the U.S. elections could impact the region’s outlook for 2025, emphasizing the need for policy measures to enhance resilience.
AMRO Maintains 2024-25 Growth Projections
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) maintains its 2024-25 growth forecasts for the region at 4.4% and 4.3%, citing favorable export prospects, strong domestic demand, and a robust tourism recovery as key drivers. China’s economy continues to grow robustly, and tourism in the region has rebounded close to pre-pandemic levels, benefiting from the global semiconductor recovery.
Steady Growth and Positive Outlook for 2024
In 2024, the ASEAN+3 region anticipates steady growth at a rate of 4.4%, supported by strong employment conditions, stable prices, and improving global demand. ASEAN is projected to see growth increase to 4.8%, while China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea are expected to stabilize at 4.4%. However, there may be a slight easing to 4.3% growth in 2025 as economies converge towards their trend growth rates. AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor highlighted the need for policy space and resilience building against potential risks, including geopolitical tensions and U.S. interest rate policies.
Source : ASEAN+3 growth forecast for 2024-25 remains at 4.4 % and 4.3 % (AMRO)
