SCB EIC predicts Thailand’s GDP growth at 2.5% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025, driven by tourism. Inflation may drop to 0.6%, with potential policy rate cuts to 2% by early 2025.
1. Current State of the Thai Economy
SCB EIC forecasts Thailand’s GDP growth at 2.5% for 2024 and 2.6% for 2025, indicating ongoing economic challenges. The tourism sector remains a critical driver, albeit with a slight expected decline in foreign visitors to 39.4 million. The return of Chinese tourists in group tours is also a significant concern.
2. Inflation and Policy Rates
The projected inflation rate for 2024 is 0.6%, aligning within the target range of 1-3%. Additionally, SCB EIC anticipates a reduction in the policy interest rate to 2% by early 2025, reflecting a slowdown in domestic demand due to prolonged financial constraints.
3. Challenges for the Business Sector
The Thai business landscape faces structural issues, notably in the automotive industry, which risks losing significant production capacity due to shifts towards electric vehicles. Additionally, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) grapple with weak domestic demand and outdated operational processes, impeding their growth potential.
Source : SCB EIC forecasts Thailand’s GDP growth at 2.5% for 2024 and 2.6% for 2025
