Donald Trump, elected 47th president, plans protectionist policies affecting global trade, energy security, and immigration, impacting U.S. and Thai economies negatively while creating uncertainty and potential geopolitical tensions.
Trump’s Return and Its Implications
Donald Trump has been elected as the 47th president of the United States, alongside significant Republican majorities in both the House and Senate. His protectionist agenda could lead to increased geopolitical tensions and heightened energy security concerns. Key proposals include raising tariffs on Chinese imports, restricting immigration, and reducing defense funding for allies, which may prioritize national interests over global warming initiatives.
Impact on Global Economy
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that Trump’s policies could negatively affect global economic growth beginning in 2025. Increased import tariffs and higher tax cuts may create trade uncertainties, leading to potential investment declines in the U.S. and Europe. Furthermore, exclusionary immigration policies might reduce labor forces, adversely impacting economic performance. Overall, these outcomes could hinder global growth rates and exacerbate financial conditions over the next few years.
Effects on Thailand’s Economy
Thailand’s economy faces increased risks from Trump’s protectionist policies, which can slow trade and investment. Thai exports, particularly to the U.S., may experience significant downturns, leading to a projected drop in export value. Foreign investment is likely to decrease due to heightened uncertainties, creating additional challenges. Ultimately, the impact of these policies may hinder Thailand’s growth, pushing it to lower expansion rates than previously anticipated. However, maintaining neutral trade relations might create opportunities for future economic benefits amidst a polarized global landscape.
Source : Trump 2.0: Implications for the Global and Thai Economies
