The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced its downward revision of global growth estimate in 2019 to 3.3%, down from 3.5%, and of global trade volume estimate to 3.4% from 4% as previously assessed in the World Economic Outlook in January 2019.
The IMF views that there remain key risks to global growth including the trade protectionist measures, a slowdown of the Chinese economy following domestic economic reforms and trade war, a slowing growth of the Eurozone due to domestic factors in many member economies, Brexit uncertainty, and tightening global monetary conditions that continue to weigh down on global growth.
As a result, roughly 70% of the global economy, which covers almost all key regions, faces a larger-than-expected slowdown of its economy in 2019.
However, the IMF expects global growth to pick up in the second half of 2019, while in 2020, the global economy will be driven by developing and emerging markets (EM) whose economies will become more stable and expand well in 2020.
In addition, there will also be supporting factors from monetary policy stances of central banks of major economies that will be more accommodative, China’s economic stimulus measures through both fiscal and monetary policies that will gradually lend support to its growth, and factors holding down growth of the Eurozone which will likely ease such as a slowdown of the auto industry in Germany and the political turmoil in the region.
IMF cuts its growth forecast in 2019 of developing markets (DM) led by the Eurozone, whose growth is likely to slow down more than expected given country-specific risks…
