The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has trimmed its forecasts for economic growth in developing Asia this year and next year as growth in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India is weighed down by both external and domestic factors.
In a supplement to its Asian Development Outlook 2019 Update released in September, ADB now expects gross domestic product (GDP) in the region to expand 5.2% in both 2019 and 2020, down from the September forecast of 5.4% growth this year and 5.5% next year.
Southeast Asia’s growth forecast is revised down slightly to 4.4% for 2019, as economic weakening in Singapore and Thailand prompts downward adjustments to their growth forecasts. Projected subregional growth in 2020 is maintained at 4.7%.
Thailand’s economy expanded by only 2.5% in January– September this year as growth moderated for private consumption and for public consumption and investment. Weaker trade also dragged on growth, with export declines in both agriculture and manufacturing. Imports similarly declined in line with weaker domestic demand. The growth forecast for 2019 is adjusted down from 3.0% in the Update to 2.6%, and the growth forecast for 2020 is adjusted down from 3.2% to 3.0%.
“While growth rates are still solid in developing Asia, persistent trade tensions have taken a toll on the region and are still the biggest risk to the longer-term economic outlook. Domestic investment is also weakening in many countries, as business sentiment has declined”
ADB Chief Economist Mr. Yasuyuki Sawada
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