Thailand’s Finance Ministry has reduced its economic growth forecast for 2023 from 3.5% to 2.7% due to a tourism slowdown and export contraction. The ministry predicts a 1.8% decline in exports and lower tourist arrivals from China impacting revenues. However, private sector consumption and lower inflation are expected to support continued growth. The ministry also advises monitoring global conflicts and their potential impact on supply chains, international trade, and oil prices.
Fiscal Policy Office reduces Thai economic growth forecast for 2023
The Finance Ministry’s Fiscal Policy Office has decided to lower its Thai economic growth forecast for 2023 from 3.5% to 2.7%. This revision is in response to the slowdown in tourism and a contraction in exports. The reduction aligns with the projections of the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of Thailand. Thailand’s exports for the year are now expected to decline by 1.8% instead of the initially projected 0.8%, and tourist arrivals by the end of the year are estimated to be around 27.7 million, down from the previous estimate of 29.5 million.
Positive outlook for Thai economy in 2024
While the economic growth rate for Thailand in 2023 will be slower than previously predicted, there are positive indicators for the following year. The private sector’s consumption is forecasted to grow by approximately 5%, and inflation is expected to remain low at around 1.5% for the entire year. This steady growth, along with a projected 3.1% increase in private sector consumption, a 4.4% growth in exports, and a 3.5% increase in private sector investment, contributes to a growth forecast of 3.2% for 2024. However, potential external factors such as the conflicts in Israel, Ukraine, and tensions between China and the United States should be closely monitored as they could have global implications for supply chains, international trade, and oil prices.
