SCB EIC revised Thailand’s 2023 growth forecast to 2.6% due to low GDP and slow Chinese tourist recovery. 3.0% growth expected in 2024 with concerns about slow recovery and external uncertainties. Four proposed enhancing policies to address structural issues.
SCB EIC revises Thailand’s growth forecast to 2.6% for 2023
SCB EIC has revised its growth forecast for Thailand in 2023, lowering it to 2.6% due to a lower-than-expected GDP and slow recovery of Chinese tourists. The report also suggests that the Thai economy is expected to grow at a rate of 3.0% in 2024 but expresses concerns about slow recovery and uncertainties from external and domestic factors. Additionally, the report proposes four enhancing policies to address structural issues in Thailand’s economy.
Thai Policy Rate Expected to Remain at 2.5%
The Thai policy rate is expected to stay at the current level of 2.5% throughout 2024 to balance Thailand’s financial system and to keep inflation within the target range. The report also notes that the Digital Wallet scheme may temporarily boost economic growth beyond its potential level, leading to increased inflationary pressures. Furthermore, the global economy in 2024 is expected to slow down to 2.5% due to monetary policy tightening among developed countries and pressures from structural factors in China.
Concerns over Declining Potential Growth in the Long Term
The SCB EIC report expresses concerns about the Thai economy growing at a lower rate over declining potential growth in the long term. This is largely due to prolonged structural issues and the uneven recovery of households and businesses. To address these issues, SCB EIC proposes a set of “four enhancing policies” to boost immunity for households, enhance businesses’ competitiveness, adjust national investment strategies, and ensure the sustainability of Thailand’s real sector. Source link: https://www.scbeic.com/en/detail/product/9346?rand=55232
Source : SCB EIC revised Thailand’s 2023 growth forecast to 2.6% and expects 3.0% in 2024
