Thailand’s 2023 economic growth fell short at 1.9%, hindered by weak exports, despite improved tourism. 2024 forecasts of 2.2% to 3.2% predict potential risks from geopolitical conflicts and a global economic slowdown.
Thailand’s Economic Growth in 2023
Thailand’s economy in 2023 fell short of initial forecasts, with a growth rate of only 1.9%, significantly lower than earlier predictions of 2.5% to 3.2%. While the tourism sector showed some recovery, weaker performance in exports, manufacturing, and private investment hindered overall growth. The National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) downgraded Thailand’s 2024 economic growth forecast to 2.2% to 3.2% from the previous projection of 2.7% to 3.7%. The economic growth outlook for Thailand in 2024 is expected to be strengthened by improved export prospects, resilient private consumption, and increased government spending. However, there are potential risks from geopolitical conflicts and a global economic slowdown.
Impact of Weak Exports on Economic Growth
The weak global demand affected Southeast Asia’s export-oriented economies. For 2024, the National Economic and Social Development Council forecasts the economy to grow by 2.2% to 3.2%, down from the previous projection. The lower-than-expected growth suggests the possibility of an interest rate cut at the Bank of Thailand’s next policy review in April. Private sector economists project a higher growth rate for 2024, attributing it to a better export outlook, rising household consumption, and increased government spending.
Risks and Opportunities for 2024
However, potential risks include geopolitical conflicts, a global economic slowdown, and China’s uncertain economic recovery. The lower-than-expected growth indicates the potential for an interest rate cut at the Bank of Thailand’s next policy review in April. The economic growth outlook for Thailand in 2024 is expected to be strengthened by improved export prospects, resilient private consumption, and increased government spending.
Source : Thailand’s 2023 GDP Disappoints: 1.9% Growth Falls Short of Expectations
