Thailand’s economy is recovering, driven by private demand, tourism, and government spending, with growth forecasts at 2.8% for 2024 and 3.4% for 2025, despite existing structural challenges.
Economic Developments and Outlook
Thailand’s economy is experiencing a positive trend, fueled by resilient private demand, tourism recovery, and increased government spending. The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) predicts growth rates of 2.8% for 2024 and 3.4% for 2025. Despite robust tourist arrivals expected to rise from 28.3 million in 2023 to over 36 million in 2024, other areas such as government spending and exports showed weakness in early 2024.
Risks and Challenges
Despite optimistic growth forecasts, Thailand faces short-term risks, including export setbacks and high household debt, which could hamper private consumption and investment. With inflation likely to rise due to the withdrawal of energy subsidies, the country must confront long-term challenges such as public debt sustainability and declining growth potential, while adapting to global digital and green transitions.
Policy Recommendations
To secure long-term growth, Thailand needs to enhance macro-financial stability and implement structural reforms. Current monetary policies support recovery, yet fiscal consolidation is crucial for restoring fiscal space. Comprehensive revenue reforms are necessary to address infrastructure demands and demographic changes, placing emphasis on innovation, human capital development, and efficient infrastructure upgrades.
Source : Realizing Higher Growth Potential in Thailand Through Bold Structural Initiatives and Reforms
