The El Niño weather phenomenon, which is due to return in the 2 nd half of 2023, is set to amplify the effects of climate change.
The Indian-Pacific region is likely to experience severe heat and drought from Q4 onwards, and the impact of El Niño on the agricultural sector will be particularly visible in 2024, as commodity yields are highly dependent on weather conditions (heat, rainfall).Coface’s forecasts point to major uncertainties for certain agricultural commodities (cereals, sugar, palm oil, citrus fruit) in the medium term, and significant risks for food security in certain regions of the world
The El Niño Southern Oscillation is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon whose origins lie in abnormal variations in surface water temperatures in the Central and Eastern Pacific (Latin American coast). It comprises two opposing phenomena (La Niña and El Niño) that historically occur every 2 to 3 years. La Niña brings colder, wetter weather, while El Niño brings warmer, drier weather.The ongoing El Niño is occurring less than a year after the last La Niña episode, so much quicker than historical frequencies. This suggests and increase in the frequency of this type of weather phenomenon, which can have damaging consequences in the long-term.
Indeed, El Niño weather disturbances, which affect the entire Indo-Pacific region, lead to heat waves and droughts. El Niño thus tends to amplify the negative effects of climate change in Asia-Pacific, South and East Africa and the Americas.
