Abstract
IMF cuts Thailand’s economic growth forecast to 2.7% for 2023. Concerns about US bond yield spikes, war in Israel, and rising oil prices, but limited impact on Thai stock market. Eyes on third-quarter earnings.
IMF Cuts Thailand’s Economic Growth Forecast
The IMF has revised down its prediction for Thailand’s economic growth to 2.7 percent in 2023 and 3.2 percent in 2024, down from the previous estimates of 3.4 percent and 3.6 percent. This adjustment is a result of slower-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter, attributed to the sluggish recovery of the tourism sector and export growth. Despite this, the IMF remains optimistic that Thailand’s economic growth will accelerate in the near future.
Concerns Over US Bond Yield Spikes and Israel-Hamas Conflict
The Senior Executive Vice President of The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), Soraphol Tulayasathien, expressed worries about the impact of US bond yield spikes and the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict on the global economy. He highlighted concerns about rising oil prices and inflation, and potential volatility in oil prices and asset investments worldwide. However, analysts expect limited impact on the Thai stock market if the conflict remains contained in Israel and is short-lived. Additionally, they are closely monitoring the third-quarter earnings of Thai listed companies, which are set to be announced in late November 2023. Despite adjustments to the SET Index’s earnings per share growth forecast, certain industry groups have seen strong performances, with valuations still below historical averages.
